14-Feb-2019, as the world was celebrating St. Valentine’s day over 40 CRPF( Central Reserve Police Force) soldiers were killed in a terrorist attack in the Pulwama district of Kashmir. Justifiably, it has been followed by anger, scorn and calls for revenge. Sadly, the intellectually lazy members of the society have also pinned this on the terrorists being victims.
The Kashmir issue is also the most contentious and divisive after the Isreali-Palestine struggle. In spite of my interest in the subject, I have found it is hard to write on the topic because of the number of variables involved. I do not want to reduce the complexity of the issue in an attempt to dissect it. It requires acknowledgement of history, the mistakes made and above all the experience of people who identify themselves as Kashmiris. I finally feel like I have a position which can be articulated. It is what Eric Weinstein put eloquently calls as the long-short position. It is a strategy predominantly seen in Hedge Fund management. I want to run through my thought experiment of how this approach can be used in the Kashmir issue. For the purpose of this blog, I do not want to cover the issue details. There are plenty of sources which anyone can search to read on the actual issue.
Expected Outcomes
I want to start by calling out an end outcome to this struggle and my acknowledgement of the situation. Towards the end, I will also mention my sources. My strawman of the outcomes of any solution for this issue will contain the below mentioned three points.
- Peace for all Kashmiris irrespective of their faith or lack of it
- National Security for India and Pakistan
- Agreement on borders and sharing of waters
Acknowledgements
While I try to unravel this convoluted issue, I want to also acknowledge a few points on the overall situation.
- With regards to liberty, even a corrupt Indian Government is any day better than the theocratic mob rule in Pakistan
- The people who are promoting mass attacks in Kashmir are not freedom fighters
- The Indian Military forces have committed crimes in Kashmir
- Pakistan is harbouring the terrorist jihadist organisations
- Kashmiri youth have been radicalised
- It is not easy to differentiate between the peace-loving Kashmiris and the supporters of terrorism in any counter-terrorism operation.
The key points which prevent the struggle are given below.
- Political implications of a negotiated solution in both countries
- Unwillingness on the part of Pakistan’s Government to dismantle the terror outfits operating in their country
- Massive radicalisation
There will never be a world with or without humans that don’t have bloodshed. We do live in a glorified jungle. Animals hurt each other for survival. However, what animals also do is to create territories and form norms for survival. So, if principles of the game don’t align it is important to create boundaries and stay within the rules of those boundaries. This is true with international relations too. The struggle in Kashmir is more ideological and political than sovereignty. It cannot be resolved without addressing the core. India or for that matter even Pakistan will not be able to adopt the ideology of their neighbour. So, we have to look at the solution. Considering that Pakistan’s democratically elected government has limited power over its military and intelligence, I do not have a solution in mind for them. I want to focus on what I believe India can do to address it.
Using the Long-Short strategy
Now let me transition to the long-short position I favour as on this problem. The two positions are focusing on the development of Kashmir and internal security. These are within the paradigm of the duty and right of the government.
Focussing on development
The government of India has for long called Jammu and Kashmir an integral part of the country. However, this has to be translated into action. There are critical aspects of development which has to be driven as a result.
- Academic development – Building schools, drive more population to fields of study which will expand their perspective beyond religion
- Infrastructure development: Building roads, bridges, hospitals, factories, power plants which will promote a better lifestyle.
- Social development: Having a social system which will support people in need. This includes health care, housing and rehabilitation of people.
- Economic development: Build opportunities for people to get into full-time employment. The job market in Kashmir is ripe but it is also blocked.
Focus on internal security
The only way to get peace for people who want it and desperately need it is by focusing on inland security. This requires investing a lot in investigative infrastructure, surveillance and enforcement agencies. This also requires a lot of transparency. There are two risks and three mandates for this.
Risk #1: Privacy invasion: Surveillance naturally causes privacy issues. However, intelligence and investigative services are inherently privacy breaches. Liberty works only when the environment is for liberty. The Kashmir struggle cannot be put in that bucket.
Risk #2: Policy hindrances: This solution requires a set of policies which need to have an interest which goes beyond partisan political perspectives. For this to pass the parliament and state assembly requires a degree of goodwill that I haven’t seen. Further one of the key aspects of these policies should be to stay outside of any religious affiliation or promotion. For example, there is no need to have waivers for either Mecca or Amarnath.
Mandate #1: Consider the LoC as the border: The Line of Control between India and Pakistan should practically be considered as a border. This also means tight security and heavy surveillance.
Mandate #2: Avoid diplomatic contact with Pakistan: The government of Pakistan seems to a puppet of its army and intelligence agencies. There are plenty of non-state and state actors which support the terrorist organisations. There is no use in having a diplomatic relationship with a state that doesn’t believe in diplomatic relations. The Prime Minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan responded to attack asking for evidence. It is strange he is asking for evidence considering Jaish-e-Mohammad the agency operating out of Pakistan has already admitted to carrying out this attack.
Mandate #3: Drive the UN to recognise the border
India should focus on solving the issue of Kashmir by making the United Nations recognise the line of control as the international border. This will mean India has to forego land it doesn’t control and hasn’t controlled for decades. India should take that stand as everyone on the Pakistan side of Kashmir is a willful Pakistani citizen. If they are not, I believe they are to raise their voices.
In conclusion, I want India to take a more pragmatic approach on Kashmir which is true to the people of Kashmir and also protects the lives of people who are willing to continue living in Kashmir or fighting for its security. This duty comes with the right to be hard of terror or organisations which promote violence from either within the country or from actors in Pakistan. The realist in me doesn’t see that happening though.
Demystifying a skeptic's world 