What is this election about?
Almost every poll that has come out in the last few months has given Donald Trump a comfortable lead over Joe Biden. However, elections are never won on opinion polls. They are won on sentiments in swing states. There is no question of who will win California or Texas. The candidate who doesn’t disturb their base and gets enough people from swing states to come to vote ends up on the winning side. To prove this, I want to share my analysis of the last 3 elections that happened.
The 2012 Presidential Elections
The 2012 presidential election was one for continuity. Barrack Obama was riding on his handling of the GFC, Affordable Health Care program and he got people united with the killing of Osama Bin Laden. With the killing of the most wanted terrorist of the time fresh in the memories of people, it wasn’t hard for Obama to get the voters to prefer him over a rather dull and boring Mitt Romney.
The 2016 Presidential Elections
The 2016 presidential election was for polarisation. Hillary Clinton wanted to win it by pointing fingers at Donald Trump. Donald Trump on the other hand wanted to ride the way of populism. Hillary Clinton assumed victory and didn’t even bother motivating voters to vote. Between the choices of known vs unknown, people who preferred known came to vote more. The opinion polls consistently showed Hillary Clinton winning the elections. What we saw was a phenomenon where people lied about their preferences in public. It was a manifesation of Timur Kuran’s Private Truths and Public Lies in the political sphere. The result was the victory of Donald Trump.
The 2020 Presidential Elections
The 2020 presidential election was for normalisation. It wasn’t strange that the margin and the number of votes were the reverse of 2016 election. The preference of Donald Trump wasn’t taboo anymore. People who likes him came out in the open. On the other hand, Joe Biden was considered a safe choice, someone who is within the margin of normalcy. After adrenaline packed four years, where we were woken up by rants on Twitter, dismissal of secretaries, threats of violence against global leaders and calls to drink disinfectants to cure Covid-19, people wanted normalcy. A presidential term where we can have our heart rates in control, while we are all dealing with the rampant spread of a pandemic seemed to be the need of the hour. The deteriorating mental and physical abilities of Joe Biden didn’t deter people as much. He was able to get people to vote more in the swing states than Donald Trump.
The 2024 Presidential Elections
The 2024 presidential elections is one for compromise. Is having a president whose critical faculties are waning by the hour better than another four years of adrenaline rush? Can Donald Trump can scare enough people to not vote for Biden because of his falling ability over his erratic behaviour? Can Joe Biden remind people who the term from 2016-2020 and compare that to the relative sanity of the present? This is also the first election where people have a choice between two candidates who have been presidents(at least from my research). I don’t have a crystal ball but there is a case for and against both candidates. Here are my variables and predictions for the elections.
Key Criteria
- The debates in this elections is lot more important than the previous ones. If Biden is able to standup to a bombastic Trump, then it will show that he is capable of handling himself for another four years. On the contrary if he crumbles under pressure then it will be advantage to Trump
- A reversal of any kind to the economic downturn will definitely help Biden.
My predictions
- The results in this election will be lot closer than the previous two in terms of number of seats. It is unlikely to see a 306-232 split.
- If the current situation and trend persists, then there is a higher chance of Donald Trump winning than Joe Biden. This is because voters have poor memories. We remember highs and lows in our personal life. The every day mayhem gets forgetten in four years. The anti-incumbency wave is more likely to go in favour of Trump.
Demystifying a skeptic's world 