Category: Politics

The curious case of Tommy Robinson

~ Venki ~ Leave a comment

“A far-right thug … ”
“A martyr for English values …”
“A freedom of speech crusader …”
“A racist, bigot & Islamaphobe …”

These are common phrases one would see when reading an article about Tommy Robinson. As the world started reading more about him, I case see people jumping on to the extreme camps which reinforced their messaging rather than what has happened. I want to add to that mayhem by providing my viewpoint based on the facts I received.

Tommy Robinson’s original name is Stephen Christopher Yaxley-Lennon. His personal life and history are clearly articulated in his Wikipedia page. Douglas Murray wrote one of the more balanced pieces on this story in the National Review.  I want to break the entire history down into a few headings. I have deliberately ordered it in a way where I cover all the opposition to Tommy first before discussing points in his favour.

  • The latest arrest is within legal limits
  • Tommy has committed offences which deserve investigation and prosecution
  • Tommy is not a racist but his movement attracted the wrong people
  • His concerns are real and need attention
  • People who should have supported him deserted him

Point #1: Tommy’s arrest is within legal boundaries

Many people across the globe are treating this arrest as some big deep state conspiracy against free speech. It definitely is not. The UK has some clear rules against reporting on ongoing court cases. Last year, Tommy Robinson was arrested and later convicted on contempt of court for the same reason. He attempted to take videos of defendants in a case held in Canterbury Crown Court. The judge pronounced him guilty and gave him a suspended sentence. He was clearly told that this is a breach and has nothing to do with freedom of speech or press. This year he did the same outside Leeds Crown Court. He was arrested, charged and taken to court. In the court, Tommy pleaded guilty and was subsequently sentenced to 13 months imprisonment. It is easy for people to do not understand the laws, to cry foul. Is it worth debating about the law? Yes, I would definitely say so. Was the law flouted to arrest Tommy? I do not think so.

Point #2: Tommy has committed offences which deserve prosecution

This is a point which Tommy Robinson himself has acknowledged. He has committed some offences which make him liable for prosecution. For example, he travelled to the US with a fake passport under the name Andrew McMaster. He was detained in New York for a drug offence and subsequently came back under another fake name Paul Harris. Early on in his life, Tommy was also convicted for assaulting an off-duty police officer. In 2014, Tommy was convicted of fraudulently misrepresenting information for a mortgage application, which he pleaded guilty. So, has Tommy committed offences? Yes, he has and he has admitted it publicly. Is there state out to get him anytime he commits an offence? It is possible.

Point #3: Tommy is not a racist but his movement attracted the wrong people

As many people want to make it, I haven’t seen any evidence of Tommy Robinson being a racist, bigot or an antisemite. I do not want to use the word Islamaphobe as I find the word useless with absolutely no intellectual value. The evidence I have seen of Tommy being those are below.

  1. Tommy Robinson has continuously claimed how the fellow Muslims in his community have supported his movement. He has also credited people the Quilliam foundation as some of the best people he has met. The people he praises are not white.
  2. Tommy has voiced concerns for the well being of the blacks, the non-muslim Asians in his community. I haven’t seen him ignore or belittle their problem.
  3. Tommy felt sad for the jews from Luton who moved to Isreal fearing their safety. He wanted them to stay back and live their life here.
  4. Tommy along with his English Defence League members burnt a NAZI flag to denounce white racial supremacy. This was followed by some NAZI sympathisers burning the EDL flag.

I can provide more evidence on the above but the point is not moot. However, it is also true that his movement attracted the wrong crowd. This is again a point which Tommy himself agrees. The English Defence League attracted genuine racists as they finally found an avenue to legitimise their claim and status. It also attracted people who were generally disillusioned with the government and wanted a means to revolt. It also attracted hooligans. This continues to this very date. Some of the protestors for Tommy Robinson’s release have a very different view from Tommy Robinson himself on what they want and what they believe. Some people as seen in their chants have no idea of Tommy’s beliefs and have joined the movement as it feels in line with their idea of truth.

Point #4: Tommy’s concerns are real and need attention

The concerns which Tommy Robinson raised are actually real. It not only affects the non-muslims in the area but also the Muslims. The same points which Tommy Robinson raised were also raised by Douglas Murray and Maajid Nawaz. Irrespective of one’s opinion of Tommy Robinson the two underlying problems are actually real and needs attention.

  1. The Grooming Gangs which exploit young, underage girls
  2. The radicalisation of young desolate Muslim men

The former continues to be a big problem. The group has a disproportionate percentage of men who identify themselves as Pakistani Muslims. Again, it is important to see that the same has been acknowledged by people like Maajid Nawaz. The Rotherham child abuse scandal is a detailed account of the atrocities committed by the grooming gangs in the UK. Tommy Robinson brought that to everyone’s attention. Any decent individual who looks into the facts will feel the pain.

The  Luton division of al-Muhajiroun, which was formed by Anjem Choudary was responsible for the radicalisation of young Muslims in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Anjem is behind bars for inviting people to join ISIS. His organisational-Muhajiroun has been responsible for a lot of attacks in the British soil. Tommy raised voice against this in the early 2000s. The United Kingdom is one of the top breeding grounds amongst developed nations for the banned organisation ISIS/ISIL.

Point #5: People who should have supported him deserted him & Britain

Nothing exemplifies the stupidity in the system than this particular set of questions and answer session held at the Oxford Union. The videos are available in public domain and I request anyone opposing Tommy to listen to the Q&A at the end. This event happened in 2015. I want to highlight some of the questions asked.

  1. Why did you think six years ago, you did not think it is a good idea to sit and debate with the Muslims or lobby the foreign policy of the government?
  2. There are tensions on both sides, far right and the Muslim extremism. Why don’t you talk about the focus on the far right which attacks of the Muslims?
  3. The EDL protest would have created even further division in our borough. You said it is a Muslim problem and non-muslims can’t solve it. Your involvement with the EDL made the divisions between moderate Muslims and the extremists larger. That is what the extremists want. Do you admit that your involvement with the EDL, in the long run, helped these extremists?
  4. I am Muslim-Pakistani. Throughout your speech, you were talking about Pakistani Muslim gangs, Muslim men raping girls. Do you see a problem in identifying any sort of criminal as Pakistani and Muslims before identifying them as terrorist or rapist?

I remember an incident during an event when a participant asked a bad question to Christopher Hitchens and he responded by starting with, “What a stupid question!!”. These questions from the students of the Oxford University are extremely similar. They are blaming a victim or a person fighting for the victims. Their contention is why he didn’t use the right language, why he wasn’t patient, why he did not use the right caveats and above all why he got involved at all.

This attitude or mostly negligence has created this hostile environment in the first place and not Tommy Robinson or the perceived generalisation. It is easy to dismiss concerns of communities under the name of bickering or worse of all bigotry. Such dismissals, in the long run, will result in antagonism, disillusion and revolts.

In summary, Tommy Robinson has committed mistakes but none of his mistakes is as grave as the ones committed by people he was opposing. I would go to the extent of saying that had the people in power acted lawfully and morally against the grooming gangs and radicalisation, Tommy Robinson would not have been the cult figure he is now. It is the failure of the complete system to provide justice to the innocents which have resulted in this chaos.  The government will only ignore it at its own peril.

 

Dinesh D’Souza: His pardon and the reactions aftermath

~ Venki ~ Leave a comment

Dinesh D’Souza a mainstream conspiracy theorist was pardoned by President Donald Trump this week. The interesting part of this pardon was Dinesh was not serving a prison term, he was under probation till September 2019. That said, I can understand the President pardoning Dinesh. Dinesh is the Trump in filmmaking. He creates facts based on his belief system much like Michael Moore. However, it was great to see the reaction of his supporters and other Republicans after this.

President Donald Trump started the chaos by saying, “Will be giving a Full Pardon to Dinesh D’Souza today. He was treated very unfairly by our government!”. Ted Cruz followed soon with the tweet, “Dinesh was the subject of a political prosecution, brazenly targeted by the Obama administration bc of his political views. And he’s a powerful voice for freedom, systematically dismantling the lies of the Left—which is why they hate him. This is Justice.”. Finally, Dinesh himself joined in by saying, “Obama & his stooges tried to extinguish my American dream & destroy my faith in America,” he tweeted. “Thank you @realDonaldTrump for fully restoring both.”

I am not bothered by the pardon as Dinesh wasn’t necessarily suffering any prison time. There are three key dangerous precedences with the above statements.

  1. One of the dangers of executive power is the frivolous use of pardons for political purposes
  2. Continuing to blame and attack past administration, especially Obama’s with venom never seen prior
  3. Unable to acknowledge the independence of the judiciary

Before I go into the above concerns, I want to state the facts here.

  1. The US Federal Election Commission caps donations to individual candidates to a maximum of $2,700 per election
  2. Dinesh D’Souza pleaded guilty to using straw donors to make $20,000 in illegal contributions to Republican Senate candidate Wendy Long in 2012. This is a case of felony.
  3. Richard Berman was the judge at the U.S. District Court in Manhattan where the case was heard. Such felony cases carry a maximum prison sentence of two years.
  4. Sen. Ted Cruz back then said “Dinesh D’Souza, who did a very big movie criticizing the president, is now being prosecuted by this Administration”
  5. Judge Berman sentenced Dinesh to five years of probation, including eight months living under supervision in a “community confinement centre” in San Diego and a $30,000 fine.
  6. While pronouncing Dinesh with the least possible sentence, Judge called Dinesh’s claim of his being a political persecution (in spite of admitting guilt) as “nonsense”.
    Dinesh after the judgement said “I’m just happy I can pay my debt to society and get on with my work”

Using the above facts, I am unable to see the political vendetta here. Now, let me elaborate on my concerns.

The Executive powers are vested in the executive branch to enable the president handle emergencies and exceptional situations. Donald Trump has taken a cue from his predecessors on using this power and stepped it up to a new level. This is borderline authoritarian.

I am not a fan of Barack Obama’s policies. However, Republicans’ have smeared him with accusations that a baseless and loathsome. One must remember all the things Donald Trump has said about Obama, including asking for this birth certificate. The hatred towards Obama is unprecedented and I frankly can’t see a reason to support Trump just for that one reason. Further, continuing to badger him at every step is despicable. It also sets precedence for shaming opponents and is uncivil. Obama’s lack of influence on this case can be seen from the facts above.

Lastly, an elected official should respect or at least acknowledge the independence of the judiciary. The Judges could have been selected by an administration but they act independently. The government cannot influence a judgement. Such statements are either a gross misunderstanding of the judicial setup or a call for more executive authority to influence the judiciary. This is a risk to one of the key principles of the democratic republic system, checks and balances.

I also want to touch upon the accusation on Rosie O’Donnell’s offence. Rosie apparently donated more to democratic campaign than the legal limit. There is one crucial difference here. She did it herself and didn’t use straw donors. She didn’t hide it which gives her an excuse. I still suggest you can try her in court as she has already admitted doing it. That doesn’t exonerate Dinesh, a conspiracy theorist and a liar.

References

https://www.politico.com/story/2014/05/dinesh-dsouza-pleads-guilty-illegal-campaign-contribution-106882

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2018/jun/06/ted-cruz/dinesh-dsouza-and-rosie-odonnell-fec-violations-di/

Ukraine couldn’t have staged a better PR for Russia

~ Venki ~ Leave a comment
Arkady Babchenko is a Russian journalist and war correspondent. He is known to be a critic of President Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy, especially with Ukraine. He lives in Ukraine with his wife a 6kids. Two days back, the news of his death broke out. The 41-year-old was supposedly shot dead. The Prime Minister of Ukraine, Volodymyr Groysman blamed Russians and more specifically Russian government for that. The foreign minister of Ukraine, Pavlo Klimkin said he sees a ‘Russian pattern’ in the death of Arkady Babchenko. I don’t think there was a news outlet in the mainstream media, especially in the NATO countries who doubted Russian’s involvement in this. The only country rejecting the claim was Russia.

The events which followed could only be staged in a badly written Bollywood movie. Within a day, Arkady Babchenko walks into a police press conference with the Ukrainian security service. The reporters were told that the agency had faked Babchenko’s death to catch people who were trying to kill him. Apparently ever Babchenko’s wife didn’t know about it.

I am pretty sure most people bought into the explanation given by the Ukrainian security service. Here is my problem with it. They are asking everyone to believe the second point because they have accepted the first point is a lie. Here is the fallacy in simple terms.

I said A.
I admit A is false. (Therefore, I speak the truth.)
Now, I say B .
B is true. (Because I speak only the truth).

I don’t want to fall into the trap of ‘once a liar, always a liar’. However, it is also not prudent to not doubt the second message, once I come to know that the first one was a lie. Further, Ukraine could have saved face had its Prime Minister and Foreign Minister not accused Russia of the murder. What it does is help Russia use this excuse in the future. It reminds me of the ‘Boy who cried Wolf’ kid’s story. One can’t make this mistake at such a high level. It degrades diplomacy to a new low. So, all Ukraine has managed here is to give Russia a PR boost.

References

Democracy loses legally in Karnataka

~ Venki ~ Leave a comment

Nothing comes close to explaining the state of politics in the largest democracy in the world, India than the elections held for Legislative Assembly in Karnataka this month. Irrespective of who becomes the chief minister of Karnataka and which party is in power, democracy is the biggest loser. Anytime there is an election in India, I tell myself I will not quote the alleged Winston Churchill’s quote on India’s being given right to self-determine its government. I find it could be intellectually lazy but after seeing the events unfold I had to kick myself and use that quote. Though there is no concrete evidence of Winston Churchill saying this. However, whoever did should have had a time machine.

“Power will go to the hands of rascals, rogues, freebooters; all Indian leaders will be of low calibre & men of straw. They will have sweet tongues and silly hearts. They will fight amongst themselves for power and India will be lost in political squabbles.”

Here is how the events unfolded.

  1. None of the parties involved contesting won enough seats to get a single majority to run the government. Of the total of 222 seats,
    1. BJP won 104 seats
    2. Congress won 78 seats
    3. JDS+ won 38 seats
    4. Others won 2 seats
  2. None of the parties above had any pre-election coalition.
  3. Immediately after noticing that they will not get majority and BJP might not either, Congress which had more than twice the number of seats as JDS presented a devious proposal to JDS. They offered to form a government with the JDS leader H. D. Kumaraswamy as the chief minister. H.D. Kumaraswamy is the son of the JDS party head H.D. Deva Gowda. This is not illegal but just breaks fundamentals of democracy.
  4. BJP which was the single largest party was asked to form for the government by the Governor of Karnataka. The Governor of Karnataka Vajubhai Rudabhai Vala, who is supposed to be a neutral leader and the constitutional head of the state is actually a BJP party member. The new government was asked to prove it’s majority in the assembly in 15 days.
  5. BJP formed the government with B. S. Yeddyurappa as the chief minister. The septuagenarian announced that he will be able to prove his majority. This is quite brazen considering the only way he can prove majority if people elected for the other parties agree to him being the Chief Minister. Is this an open statement that he will bribe the opposition MLAs or just the impunity enjoyed by politicians? Either way, he cannot be prosecuted legally.
  6. The next action done by the Congress and JDS party heads was to round up their MLAs, move them to another state and keep them under guard. This act of locking up the elected legislators was done under the pretext of protection.  This is an open case of kidnapping and house arrest. I also wonder if this is an admission that elected officials can be bought. There was a bigger case in Tamil Nadu a few years back, so these acts have political precedences to an extent that it can be considered normal. However, at what point can this be considered as a violation of habeas corpus? These acts can’t be proven illegal as both law and lawmakers have morphed into a single corrupt system.

I am sure there will be more drama unfolding in the coming days. Congress which has lost power might form the government under a JDS Chief Minister or Yeddyurappa might buy off some MLAs to prove majority. Either way, there is going to be no legal grounds to prosecute them. Sadly, this wasn’t the first time this has happened and definitely won’t be the last. The moral police in the mainstream media have made it to a secularism vs fundamentalism fight. Unfortunately, both parties are on the same side here. It is a fight between political impunity and democratic values. The loser is the people.

It is a master stroke – Beware of Trump’s baits on Jerusalem and Travel Ban

~ Venki ~ Leave a comment

Most foreign policy experts would agree that Trump’s move to ban people from certain countries or his recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital is a diplomatic blunder. The past presidents feel it will cause unrest in the middle east nations, disagreements with partner nations and above all might back fire the global fight against terrorism. I might be giving President Trump a lot of credit here but I think it is a master stroke for his divisive agenda. ‘Divide and Rule’ is an age old political trick and Donald Trump seems to be a master at that. For the hypersensitive left or the cunning right, it might be hard to believe but he has perfected the art of divisiveness and delivering it to the right persona. I feel Trump’s moves are baits and people are falling for it. Here is my take on these specific policies.

Putting oneself in President Donald Trump’s shoes is not easy, but let’s try it for a brief while. If I were Donald Trump, what keeps me going is unabated adulation and power. Let us not start judging those attributes for now. If that is what I want, then I have to find ways to achieve that. Surprisingly, for anyone who understands politics the means to get there are not mutually exclusive. Donald Trump’s base is an evangelical group which will support him irrespective of anything. They would have voted for Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush or even Mike Pence as long as they are evangelical. These people will continue to praise the Republican in power. The other set of Trump voters are the people from the so called ‘Rust Belt’ states in the US who are frustrated with the establishment. They are not extremely evangelical but are anxious of their future. If Trump can continue to show them way the reasons to be anxious, he will stay in power. The above policies are baits driven by these motivations.

The travel ban or popularly known as Muslim Ban has no mention of religion in it. It was cleverly crafted to do exactly that, but Trump appealed to the fear in his base by calling it a Muslim Ban during his campaign and actually while signing it. The Ban has no direct effect on Trump as an individual but it will feed on his base and he will propel himself with that energy. Trump would have an Indian Ban, Buddhist ban or an Italian Ban if it could easily cause the same effect. It was a bait. He wanted people to react and anger his base. This bait however hasn’t caused the intended damage. Now look at it in conjunction with the Jerusalem announcement.

Making Jerusalem the capital of Israel has no direct impact to the welfare of Americans. Why should it matter to a person whose campaign was to concentrate on the US and not bother about other sovereign nations. Firstly, The announcement elated the born again Christians who want Jews to control Jerusalem for the second coming of Jesus. But that will not bring Trump back to power. Trump definitely knows the fundamentalist Islamist groups will not be happy with it. Their demonstrations are not going to be peaceful. They will definitely attack civilians. Neither Trump nor his family will be directly affected by any such attacks. When such attacks happen, it drives emotional reactions in people. He will be looked at as a saviour with his Travel Ban. It will also eliminate any sane voice who want to investigate this issue as un-American. This will propel Trump back to victory. Just cast your memory on the key aspect which won Bush the 2006 elections. As Bush fell in the polls, Osama Bin Laden issued a statement threatening Bush. It triggered a wave of anger. People got together to reflect George Bush. President Donald Trump is doing exactly that. He is not appealing to your intellect but to your anxiety and fear.

It is extremely easy to dismiss Trump as a man-child or a narcissist but to call him an idiot is plain inaccurate. Having had my share of experiences with people with NPD, I believe these people are way too smart but dangerous as they are self obsessed. Trump’s detractors will downplay his capabilities at their own peril.

Two possible scenarios

Now, what do I hope happens. I really hope the world deals with through intellectual discourse and peaceful demonstrations. Attack Trump where it hurts him the most. That is not American people or American flag but his ego. Do it in a peaceful way and do it worldwide. Don’t underestimate your enemy’s capability. If nations want to take this up, do it is a civil way through diplomatic ties and the United Nations. It is an era for having debates, war of ideas and not military conflicts.

All said and done, what do I see is most likely to happen. We have to brace yourself as there will be violent demonstrations as the right wing lunatic will react irrespective. Peace is not in their DNA. They will make life miserable for civilians on all sides. They will eliminate sympathy for people who actually are affected by Trump’s schemes. The terrorists need Trump’s policies as they are the base of the Islam right wing. We are going to see more justification of divisive policies. The left are going to react to any violence blaming Trump and not condoning the religious philosophies behind the attack. This will irritate everyone and propel Trump’s ratings.

Social Media Trials – an inferno which will engulf us all

~ Venki ~ Leave a comment

Al Franken resigned from the Senate last week after a spate of allegations against him. His resignation speech was massively criticised by many.  When I listened to it, the speech reminded me of the multiple facets which were wrong about our system. As a person growing up in India, I always read news where media would convict an individual without proper trial. Then, there were instances where people take laws into their own hands and hand over punishment to people on the streets. The inability of the judicial branch to run a fair and fast trial on the accused or protect the rights of the common citizens, made the medial and social trials a very fancied alternatives. All of a sudden there was a craze to beat someone on the streets with no trial. While they did get the right perpetrator at times, it was a dangerous trend, as it gives authority for a group to hit anyone you don’t like. With the social media, I now see these two dangerous trends have been amalgamated to create a parallel judicial system filled with trolls who have the attention span of a sparrow. If legislative side is beginning to get affected by this then I feel the next few years are extremely dangerous. I want to break this down by clarifying my position on sexual harassment, and then on this public justice obsession.

Most traditions and almost every religion claims that it has great respect for women, however I haven’t seen even a single one do so in practice. Women have been subjugated and abused for generation. It is great to hear their voices and see the change in the society.

Sexual abuse is a despicable act and shouldn’t be tolerated even between partners. What is worse than the abuse itself is the victim bashing. One cannot blame someone else for one’s inability to keep their libido to themselves. It is paramount to have a society where people speak out against the perpetrators without any inhibition. It is also more important to ensure the society protects these people. I wish more people come out in open to share their stories and more people do so immediately. Above all, I wish these incidents stop happening in the generations to come. So, I want to eliminate these three main oppositions to the people coming out.

  1. They had it coming because of their lack of culture, values or morality.
  2. They should avoid group mentality and handle this as individuals.
  3. They should have done it immediately. Since they have delayed it, the accusation lacks merit.

All three reasons are copouts by people who do not have any intellectual capital.I have carefully framed the sentences neutrally with no reference to any gender.

My concern is not with people coming out but the way these accusations are being dealt. For what it is worth, these are still accusations and do not have proof yet. I want more and more people to come out and share their experiences, but I do not want people to take action on that. We should have an investigation before taking actions. Ten accusations doesn’t mean one is guilt of the crime, it just increases the probability of having done it. Investigation needs honest assessment of facts over emotional reaction to certain posts. Reality is different from reality shows. Facts cannot be measured by number of likes. This lynch mob mentality has been a dangerous development in the last few years. Someone says something and twitter goes crazy for a couple of days. Then they move on to the next issue leaving people behind.

Genuine Victims are left behind

Social Media is great as a mechanism to reach out to thousands of people. What used to take days to achieve has been reduced to minutes if not seconds. However, the mechanism to disseminate information cannot be used to accelerate investigation. One of the key aspect of investigation is protection of victims and ensure they get their due justice. By not letting investigation run through its due coarse and by exhibiting the primitive mob mentality, people affected will not get the necessary justice. They are told that a bunch of people have just abused the accused perpetrator and at its worst, the person will have to find another job. This is not justice for the genuine victims. This doesn’t prevent further such incidents, this doesn’t provide legal protection to the victims, this doesn’t ensure that the victim can move on in their life.

You could hurt an innocent

It might sound harsh and even brash to the moral crusaders in Twitter, you can hurt innocents by doing your emotional justice mechanism. When Starbucks CEO said that he plans to recruit refugees, one group started going more to Starbucks and another one started attacking them. The result is few innocent coffee-goers got hurt. By responding to sexual abuse allegations with instant vilification, you might end up crusading against everyone and not just the perpetrators. You also set a dangerous precedence where anyone can raise a point and a mob picks it up and acts on it. This is not different from how the notorious religious extremist groups react. They don’t care about facts, they just pick up clues from one of their biased media outlets or Twitter rants and react. In this process, you do not know who gets hurt.

Facts are bigger than emotions

The media is hardly sharing facts. In stead they are sharing emotions. For some reason, this seems to be the anti-pattern. When I read a news item, I am looking for answers to the three of the important questions.

  1. What did the person do?
  2. What is the evidence for saying that the person did that?
  3. What are the causal factors which led to this?
  4. What are the supporting evidences which will corroborate this story if any.

At the same time, I am wary of flowing emotions and call for immediate judgements without presenting any evidence what so ever. As I say this, I also acknowledge that most sexual abuses happen when there is no third person to testify. Also, it makes the life of the victim extremely harrowing to answer prying and deeply skeptical questions. This also is a testimony to my original point of protecting the victim. So, it is a fine balance and a skill to muster enough evidence to be able to piece together a picture. We are emotional beings but making decisions without looking at facts, especially when it can affect countless lives is a dangerous precedence.

Selfishly, it could be “you”

As the saying goes, “Be careful what you wish for, lest it come true.”  When people ask for these emotionally charged immediate decisions, it sets a dangerous trend. I have been having discussions with some of my colleagues on this dangerous trend. Everyone can fall into a majority or a minority group depending on the group. So, if you start to make decisions depending on whether the victim belongs to a discriminated minority and not on facts, the trend can come back to hit you hard. Let’s focus on the crime and evidence and not the demographic. If I find ten non white, straight, christian, male to say something about you, then are you guilty?

You follow the collective over the cliff

The other dangerous trend I see is to claim innocence if a person is elected. Donald Trump, Roy Moore or Al Franken cannot be termed innocent because people have decided to elect them in spite of the accusations against them. This is a phenomenon of collective suicide. Popular opinions and facts are not always linked. Further it creates a herd mentality and people stop thinking.

Conclusion

To conclude, I feel people should take the following steps before taking against individual.

  1. Hear the victim
  2. Protect victim’s identity and interest
  3. Share the next steps with the victim and also call out for the need to protect the accused’s identity
  4. Commit to a free and fair investigation
  5. Act based on the evidences found
    1. Take necessary strong action if the evidence is conclusive
    2. If the result is inconclusive but favours one party over the other, then
      1. Protect the identity of the individuals
      2. share the findings
      3. Issue necessary warnings
      4. Move the doubtful person from any role of influence on the other
    4. If the result is completely inconclusive, then
      1. be transparent with the findings
      2. protect identities
      3. ensure you take necessary actions to be able to capture evidences in the future.
  7. Reflect on the policies and make appropriate changes

If you do not follow the due process before making any decision, then it is a dangerous trend. It could very easily create divisive environment, snowball into a moral crisis and polarise people to form group consensus rather than solve the issue.

Yemen Humanitarian Crisis Part I – The history

~ Venki ~ Leave a comment

 The world will be entering 2018 with some serious humanitarian crisis. The civil war in Syria, the Rohingya crisis in Myanmar, the Catalan crisis in Spain, the refugee offshore detention centre crisis in Australia and the unrest in the Kashmir valley to name a few, but none seem to be more grave than the one in Yemen. The crisis has disturbed me to the extent that I am struggling to stop myself from thinking about it. I will try to give a quick narrative of the complete story. I want to write about it in two parts. The first part is the history of the events and a high-level view of the situation. The second part covering the details of the horror.

Brief history of Yemen

In order to understand the current struggle, it is important to understand the history of Yemen. The present capital of Yemen is Sana’a. It is considered one of the oldest inhabited cities in the world with civilisation records dating the 15th century BCE. Greek geographer Ptolemy described Yemen a fortunate Arabia (Arabia Felix) as against the rest desert Arabia (Arabia Deserta). According to Wikipedia, Yemenis had developed the South Arabian alphabet by the 12th to 8th centuries BCE, which explains why most historians date all of the ancient Yemeni kingdoms to that era. Yemen was the first country to also produce commercial coffee.

Islam spread rapidly in Yemen in the 7th Century CE. By the 9th century CE, the northern Yemen predominantly belonged to the Zaydi sect, an Iraqi based Shia sect. There were few other Shiite sects but they were minorities. The southern and western Yemen were mainly controlled by different Sunni factions, the Ayyūbids,  the Rasūlids,  and later the Sufis. But for a part of Northern Yemen, the rest of the country came under the Ottoman Empire and continued to remain that way till their fall at the end of the Great War in 1918.

At the fall the Ottoman Empire, the Northern Yemen became part of the United Arab States. North Yemen gains independence and is ruled by Imam Yahya, a leader from the Zaydi community. He was succeeded by his son Imam Ahmad. In the mid-1960s, Imam Ahmad’s son Badr took the reins after his father’s death. He was deposed in a coup détat by the army official resulting in the formation of the Yemen Arab Republic with Sana’a as its capital.

South Yemen has been under some British influence from the 1830s. After the fall of the empire, South and East Yemen were ruled as part of the British Yemen until 1937. In 1967, the tribal states united to form the People’s Republic of Yemen, comprising Aden and former Protectorate of South Arabia. However, in two years the Marxist National Liberation Front (NLF) took over power and the British troops were fully removed from the country.  By 1970, they officially formed the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY) with Aden as it’s capital. It was a secular government till they merged with the North.

North and South Yemen, didn’t have any open conflict but there were always discussions on merging. In May 1988, the two governments created a demilitarized zone at their border. In May 1990, they agreed on a draft unity constitution, which was ultimately approved by referendum in May 1991. The Republic of Yemen was officially declared on May 22, 1990. Ali Abdullah Saleh who is from the Zaydi community became the first president of the united Yemen, which he was until the Arab Springs of 2011.

Lead up to the Revolution

Yemen has been in a political turmoil for the last century. Civil unrests have been quite common. In the last couple of decades, they have seen ideological and political clashes between a violent Shiite faction called Houthis and the Arabia Al-Qaeda. However, what is happening now is of a magnitude never seen before. What is worse, it is a crisis which hasn’t remotely got the coverage it deserves. Here is the quick rundown of events which has resulted in today’s state.

BBC timeline of Yemen will give a decent account of the events which has led to the present situation.

Key Stats about Yemen

(from http://www.cso-yemen.org & http://www.centralbank.gov.ye)

Demographics (as of 2016)
Population: 27 million (approx)
Sex distribution: 50.62% male 49.38% female
Age breakdown: 41% (under 15years) , 54.8% (between 15-60 years) and rest over 60 years
Religious affiliation: 65% Sunni 35% Shia
Literacy: 70.1%; males literate 85.1%; females literate 55.0%.

Government (officially recognised by the international body)
Form of government: multiparty republic with two legislative houses
Head of state: President
Head of government: Prime Minister
Capital: Sanaa.
Official language: Arabic.

Economics
Budget Deficit: 50%
Exports: mineral fuels and lubricants 79.7%, chemicals and chemical products 9.4%; food and live animals 7.6%
Imports: mineral fuels and lubricants 32.4%, food and live animals 25.9%, machinery and transport equipment 15.7%
Gross National Income: U.S.$33 billion
The imported food items account for 90% of Yemen’s food requirements.

Though there were occasional Houthi and Al-Qaeda violence, the Yemenese government was doing a relatively good job at ensuring they stay away from these violent groups, unlike their more illustrious northern neighbour. In spite of siding with Iraq in their invasion of Kuwait, Yemen had been in good books of most countries. As the only Gulf country which doesn’t have a lot of oil left, Yemen’s economy is in the danger of collapsing. Government’s lack of effort in developing the economy for the country resulted in huge divide and economic uncertainties. The situation started to worsen towards the end of the first decade of this century. 

Yemen Revolution

In 2011, Like most of the nations in the middle-east, the Arab Springs triggered a series of anti-government revolts in Yemen. As with the rest of the countries, the Yemen fight was against corruption, erosion of human rights, lack of development and freedom of the press. The Yemenese version of the Arab Springs was led by the Nobel Peace Prize winner Tawakkol Karman and was called ‘Jasmine Revolution’.
After an injury caused by a rocket attack, President Saleh handed over power to his deputy, Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi. In November 2011, after few months of continuing to maintain power against the mounting revolution against him, Ali Abdullah Saleh finally relinquished his power to Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi. He did that by signing a power-transfer agreement brokered by the Gulf Cooperation Council. However, the coalition of the opposition parties called JMP (Joint Meeting Parties), didn’t agree with this agreement. By Feb 2012, in what looks like an extremely dodgy presidential election Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi won unopposed.

Yemen Civil War

In spite of the transfer of power, there were four key developments from late 2012 to end of 2014, which led to the present Civil War in Yemen.
  1. Saleh was not happy to have relinquished the power after 33 years at the helm. He mustered enough support in the Yemeni army to build a base for himself.
  2. Yemenese revolutionaries including people like Tawakkol Karman, who were fighting peacefully to put Yemen on the path of development were disappointed. The country moved from one dictator to another and there wasn’t any development in sight.
  3. The Houthis, Al Qaeda in Arabian Peninsula(AQAP), ISIL started to use the anxiety in the nation to drive their annexure plans
  4. Saudi Arabia and Iran were looking for avenues to get into the country to drive their sectarian agenda
The civil unrest started when Houthis joined the pro-Saleh armed forces to capture Sanaa. The sent Hadi to Aden in the south first and then he moved to Riyadh for support. Over time they captured most of Yemen. In the meantime, the US forces conducted drone attacks to kill some of the AQAP leaders. However, AQAP started capturing cities from the south.
The issue got worse when the Houthis gave Saudi Arabia their awaiting invitation by threatening to attack them. This brought them into the war as they started bombing all sections of the society with no consideration. The Houthis then started receiving support from an unexpected source, the Islamic Republic of Iran.
The US and the UK support Saudi Arabia with military equipment, arms and intelligence services. The US conducts drone attacks and also has armed forces on the ground. Saudi Arabia with all the support they receive from the developed nations has caused havoc to this poor nation. They have taken over control over the oil in Yemen, which was still a major contribution to their economy. They also have an embargo on imports or support to Yemen, which has resulted in one of the major humanitarian crisis the world has seen in decades.
Overall, what started as a movement to remove corrupt authorities and push Yemen towards development has had an unexpected twist. The Yemeni people are in the middle of a crisis, a sectarian war, a political power struggle, terrorism,  destruction of the sovereignty of Yemen by foreign sources and utter disrespect to all international laws including Geneva convention. I want to convey the details of this crisis in my second part.

 

 

The world this week – ending 18Nov2017

~ Venki ~ Leave a comment

Australia votes for marriage equality

Australia parliament didn’t want to legalise same-sex marriages all by themselves as they feared the backlash from the conservative groups. This led to a huge backlash. They wanted to do a plebiscite which finally became a voluntary postal vote. The survey concluded on 7th November 2017 and the results were announced on 15th November. It was an astounding victory for the ‘Yes’ team in favour of marriage equality. It has been one of the bright spots in a year of crisis. Here is the link to my blog on the same.

The Catalan crisis

Spain has comfortably been the most influential country in the Age of Discovery since Christopher Columbus set his sails to discover the Caribbean islands. However, by the 20th Century, they had let go of all their imperialistic ambitions to settle into a more civilised society. They have a high degree of personal freedom and protection of human rights. In spite of being a constitutional monarchy, they are still very much a modern liberal state. However, the Catalan crisis and the following human rights violations have brought back some of the memories of its notorious history.  Spain is one of the most federated or de-centralised states in the world. Catalonia has a separate history has always been a territory annexed to Spain rather than be a part of Spain. The struggle for Independence has nothing to do with hatred towards Spain but a right for the people to determine their future. This is not Brexit but a struggle of the Catalonian’s for self-determination of their government.
Spain has reacted in a despicable fashion by not recognising the will of the people. The ironical part of it was when the King of Spain spoke about the power of democracy to oppose Catalonian leaders. Probably he thinks he is a representative of the people. The Catalan President Carles Puigdemont along with 13 ministers have been sacked and charged under sedition laws. Carles Puigdemont along with 5 of his ministers sought refuge in Brussels, however, in a rather spineless act, Belgium along with the rest of the European Union countries have abandoned a peaceful independence movement of a nation.
The arrested Catalan leaders are still been held in the prison without a trial. In the meantime, the Spanish government is calling for a fresh election in Catalan. Carles Puigdemont has people to unite and vote for the pro-independence leaders. Deposed Catalan president Carles Puigdemont said that he will stay in office should the pro-independence parties win a majority of seats in the upcoming election. In the meantime, people are taking to the streets to demonstrate their support for Independence. The  Spanish Government and the International Community are ghastly inconsiderate to the feeling of Catalonia. Surprisingly the only country which supports Catalonia is Russia but I am not sure if their support comes from the right place.
The Catalan news website covers most of the details.

The Military Coup in Zimbabwe

Robert Mugabe, the controversial 93 years old president of Zimbabwe is facing challenges from his own military. Mr Mugabe has been ruling Zimbabwe in one form or another from the 1980s. Robert Mugabe, much like many of his contemporary revolutionaries fought the battle against segregation, discrimination for the welfare of the society. Much similar to them, once he succeeded in gaining the power, he didn’t know how to create a system which will ensure welfare for all and doesn’t depend on him. The longer he stayed in power, the more he didn’t want to relinquish it. This results in charges of corruption, misappropriation, nepotism amongst many. Mr Mugabe is no different. He wants to hand over power to his wife Grace Mugabe, who had famously claimed that even Robert Mugabe’s corpse will win elections in Zimbabwe. Power got from the people was never given back to the people.

After watching this unfold for years, the military finally has taken matters into their own hands. They have captured power, arrested some of Robert Mugabe’s aides. Mr Mugabe has been under house arrest. There is still no clarity on Grace Mugabe. However, from the initial messages, it looks like the military is maintaining respect for Mr Mugabe and wants to give him a clean exit. Will Robert Mugabe accept this transition? It is still unclear what this means to the future of Zimbabwe. Are we going to see a military rule for the next few decades? Are we going to see a smooth transition to a more free and fair democracy? We don’t know yet. We have to watch over the next few weeks. What is clear now is, most people in Zimbabwe seem to feel positive about this latest military coup.

High profile Sexual assaults

I have never been a big fan of Hollywood, at least the A-Listers over there. However, I feel Hollywood has now started a trend of exposing high profile sexual abuse cases. I do not want to use the word scandal as it affects the victims. After Harvey Weinstein and CK Louise, we have had an avalanche of new cases coming out, This week we have seen women coming out against George HW Bush, Roy Moore and finally, Senator Al Franken Victims are slowly getting more courage to face the situation. I wish this snowballs and the people finally pick up the courage to impeach the Groper-In-Chief at the White House.

There are a couple of other points which have gotten highlighted through these scandals.

  1. Sexual abuse is pervasive and is bi-partisan. While Harvey Weinstein is a big Democrat donor, Al Franken is a democratic senator.
  2. The hypocrisy of the right and the conservative media is extremely apparent. Apart from a few Republicans, the rest of them as still behind Roy Morre the Child Sex Predator who is contesting for Senate seat in Alabama. The pro-marriage, anti-abortion family man has been after minor girls while he was in his 30s. The progressive left has distanced themselves from their predators while the right wants to elect them to the government. Steve Bannon wants to project the cases against Roy Moore as a Jeff Bezos-Washington Post conspiracy.

I sincerely hope more women come out in the open and everyone supports them to take the stigma out of the society. If anything the abusers should be stigmatised, instead, they are getting elected.

The 31st ASEAN Summit

Founded in 1967, ASEAN stands for The Association of Southeast Asian Nations. It is a 10-member bloc with a combined GDP of $2.4 trillion and a land mass covering more than 1.7 million square miles. The ASEAN summit has been happening twice a year since 2009, discussing trade, national security, health and climate-related issues. The most notable countries who haven’t been given membership are East Timor and Taiwan. East Timor has been excluded under the pressure of Indonesia and Malaysia. Taiwan is not included in the fear of China.  The 31st ASEAN summit was held in Manila,

The 31st ASEAN summit was held in Manila, Philippines from 10–14 November. It was attended by leaders from all over the world. It looks like a congregation of human rights violators. The list which has Aung San Suu Kyi, Rodrigo Duterte, Li Keqiang, Shinzo Abe, Narendra Modi and last but definitely not the least Donald Trump.

One might wonder why ASEAN is important for non-ASEAN countries. ASEAN is important predominantly for trade and national security reasons. Good worth trillions of dollars pass through the disputed South China Sea every year. It is important for everyone to be part of these negotiations. The collaboration of the ASEAN countries is key to prevent illegal trafficking of people and resources. Further, ASEAN GDP is the 6th in the world. No country wants to miss out such an opportunity.

Members
Brunei – Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah of Brunei
Cambodia – Prime Minister Hun Sen
Indonesia – President Joko Widodo
Laos – Prime Minister Thongloun Sisoulith
Malaysia – Prime Minister Najib Razak
Myanmar – State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi
Singapore – Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong
Thailand – Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha
Vietnam – Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc
Philippines – President Rodrigo Duterte
Dialogue partners
Australia – Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull
Canada – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau
China – Premier Li Keqiang
European Council – President Donald Tusk
Japan – Prime Minister Shinzo Abe
India – Prime Minister Narendra Modi
New Zealand – Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern
Russia – Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev
South Korea – President Moon Jae-In
United States – President Donald Trump
United Nations – Secretary General Antonio Guterres

The Yemen Crisis deepens

One of the biggest humanitarian crisis of our generation is happening in Yemen with contribution from every nation. Even the silence of the world leaders is killing innocents in Yemen. Before the civil war, 90% of Yemen’s food requirements were imported. Saudi Arabia has blocked all imports to Yemen, leaving the country with a shortage of medicines and food. Young children are affected the most. The United Nations is calling this one of the worst famine in decades. The lust for oil from Saudi has made the world leaders continue to arm them. These arms are being used against civilians in Yemen. Not many know that the US forces are teaming up with Al-Qaeda and Saudi Arabian army to fight the Houthis. This is not the state that the human rights activist and Nobel Peace Prize winner Tawakkol Karman would have imagined for her country in 2011 Arab Springs.

http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=57380#.WhCICLZg3Up

Gun Crime continued

The tryst with firearms in the United States is something that I am unable to understand. The NRA is the best in creating a market through propaganda, lobbying/bribing and fake news. After the mass shooting in Las Vegas and the Sutherland Springs, Texas, this week we had two more incidents. One was a freak incident where a person showing off his guns in a discussion about the Sutherland Springs shooting accidentally shot two people. The second was a more serious one, where a lunatic went on a shooting spree before entering a school campus. Thankfully the school authorities immediately locked down the school to prevent deaths of many more innocent lives. The shocking commonalities in all these threads are blatantly disturbing.

  1. The perpetrators have mental issues and family problems
  2. They were allowed to purchase semi-automatic weapons and supplements which make them worse.
  3. They take their personal frustrations on the society
  4. The Democrats talk about gun-control and no action
  5. The Republicans talk about prayer and solidarity
  6. NRA advertises the need to have more guns to prevent such gun crimes
  7. The rest of the country braces itself for the next attack

Is there anyone genuinely interested in resolving this? From Bernie Sanders to Elizabeth Warren, senators only talk about sensible gun control. No one ever talks about addressing the need to have guns. Why do civilians need a gun, can we address that first?

Fear of the left – at the root of the Democratic party politics

~ Venki ~ Leave a comment

YouTube has been doing me favours by recommending videos which are fairly interesting to watch. Yesterday I stumbled upon one titled, “Obama on Fox News – Awesome Obama interview”. That got my attention immediately. For one, I haven’t watched it, secondly, I was curious about the tone of the Fox News reporters and finally, I wanted to know what was awesome about the interview. What I found was a rather despicable truth of the state of the American politics. It also emphasised my previous points on why Obama and his predecessors were the reason for the election of Donald Trump.

Here is the link for you to watch. I have deliberately moved the video to 4:41 minutes as that is where the interesting bit starts.

 

Check out the expression on Obama, when Bill O’Reilly a man who has since been accused of sexual harassment is questioning him on being a left-wing guy who wants to distribute wealth and create an entitlement state. Obama shrivels and almost wets his pants before vehemently opposing everything. He doesn’t want to be known as a left-wing guy, he doesn’t want to distribute wealth and above all, he doesn’t want to create an entitlement state. Borrowing the famous quote from Michelle Obama, when Bill O’Reilly went low, Barrack Obama went lower. It was a pathetic answer. This was a point where Obama literally sold his base short.

Remember, Obama ran for hope. He came to power when people were against the looting of Wall Streets. When the big bankers were bailed out as common people went homeless. Redistribution of wealth is not just procedural justice, it is required for the longterm sustenance of development and capitalism. What is wrong with that? What is wrong with being called the ‘left-wing guy’? Why is the opinion of Fox News host important, considering they will equate anyone with a social conscience to National Socialists? Obama didn’t want to be in anyone’s bad books. He wanted to please everyone and especially his corporate owners. You cannot please all quarters. If you please the right wing corporatist forces, then as a natural extension you will affect the vast majority of your working population in a negative way. If you sell hope and don’t deliver, you will leave the country in a much worse state than before. That failed hope has manifested itself into the one man, Donald Trump, who can affect the hope of every individual.

This inclination to be on the good books and not standing for progressive values is at the root of democratic politics. When you try to please all, you please none. When you can’t take a progressive stand, you invariably are worse than taking a conservative stand. Most of the US and for that matter, every country in the world need progressive systems and leadership. When the right-wing conservative politicians are proud of themselves, the left-wing should at least be able to say they are progressive. They should at least be able to take a pro-people progressive stand on all the issues.

Is North Korea a real threat, unless we provoke?

~ Venki ~ Leave a comment

North Korea is the new Russia for our media. The obsession to call the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea a ‘Rogue Nation’ is spreading wild. I have no sympathies for the totalitarian regime, however, the behaviour of the world leaders especially the NATO is rather pugnacious. This blog comes out of the answers to some simple questions.

  1. How many people has the North Korean regime killed outside its country in the last decade? Where does it stand with the United States?
  2. How many sovereign nations has the North Korean regime attacked in the last decade? Where does it stand with the United States?

The answers to both these questions is obvious and will put the entire hysteria around North Korea to perspective. So, where is all this coming from? Let’s break the hysteria down.

As a person who is more inclined to Marxism and Socialism, it bothers me when communism is associated with totalitarian regimes. I do not believe Communism as a form of governance with the power falling into the hands of a minority. Most communist regimes today are mostly oligarchy or totalitarian.  There is no accountability. As an atheist, it bothers me when they are referred as atheist or anti-faith regimes. In reality these are state run religions with the rulers worshipped as gods. North Korea fits into this criteria and I do not share any sympathies for that regime. The economy of the country is in shambles and unlike Cuba, the education system has broken down for the public. However, this doesn’t justify the war mongering against them.

The entire history this problem stems from the tensions between the USA and the then communist USSR. Japan had conquered whole of Korea in 1910 and rules them till the end of World War II. When Japan lost the war,  Korea got freed by the Allied Powers mainly the USSR and the USA. The former army was in the north and the latter in the south of the infamous 38th Parallel. As time went by, both the armies stuck to their grounds as the US feared the raise of communist influence in Korea. The communists under the founder of North Korea, Kim Il-sung didn’t deal with the situation smartly either. It led to the split of Korea to the two countries we see now.

The next major incident in this is the Korean War. The war started with Kim Il-sung’s army invading the South. The United Nations gave its green signal to strike back and liberate South Korea. This war resulted in one of the most brutal attacks on the civilians in North Korea and left them in a very bad shape. The bombing of Pyongyang and destruction of its dams and fields is quite well documented. What most people don’t know if the Korean war never officially ended. The war which began in 1953 is still on.

This youtube playlist contains a collection of one of the best videos in this subject.

Once a country gets demolished to the extent North Korea got during the Korean War, it is extremely hard to recover without global support. North Korea got none such. People’s Republic of China was more keen on exploiting North Korea and the USSR was more interested in seeing who wins the cold war. Kim Il-sung didn’t need to motivate people to think the world was against them. The destruction did the job for him. People looked up to him for their survival. It is there in the DNA of the country.

Any half decent psychologist would point out that North Korea’s proliferation of arms at the expense of basic development, unsolicited threats to the US and its allies and self-adulation comes from fear of being attacked. They do not want another Korean war. Their nuclear capability is at its best a deterrent unless they are attacked.  They will not wage a war at a large scale. We are dealing with an unstable country with nuclear weapon, ruled by a lunatic.

Considering the circumstances in North Korea and the global climate crisis, another full fledged war would be a catastrophe of proportion that the world hasn’t seen.  The answer to the North Korea crisis is not threats but diplomacy. The United Nations along with rest of the countries should focus on development of North Korea, instead of sanctions and threats. It is not going to work in this situation. The people are captives of the government and do not understand that they are in an Orwellian society. Once they have education and the women in the society are empowered, the country will naturally develop. The regime will die a natural death. Most of the world leaders are not having that opinion. They are either just a thin skinned and mentally fragile as Kim Jong-un or want to shift the attention of people from their failing policies. This doesn’t augur well for the world. I wonder where the Doomsday clock is now.

References
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-15278612
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombing_of_Pyongyang