Ajatashatru, son of Bimbisara

~ Venki ~ 2 Comments

“What will happen to you if I don’t spend time with you?”, I asked my daughter a few weeks back.

The narcissist in me was thinking of how much time and effort I was spending with my daughter, taking her to classes, teacher her, training with her. I wanted her to acknowledge the effort. I wanted her to be grateful. In a moment of reflection, I realised how very unbecoming was my wish. It was not for my daughter to learn but for me to feel acknowledged. I was reminded of the story of Ajatashatru that I read as a child. The story has always been with me for two reasons. I want to share both here.

Ajatashatru was the king of Magadha who is believed to have lived in 450 BC, right at the same time as Gautama Buddha. As a teenager he imprisoned his father, King Bimbisara and forcefully took over him kingdom. He has massive expansionist ambitions. In a few months, he ordered for the execution of his father. Months later, his uncle Presenajit, the king of Kosala waged a war on him to avenge the death of his friend and the husband of his sister, Bimbisara. During the war, Ajatashatru confessed told him the story.

“The day I ordered execution of my father, I had a child of my own. I lifted the baby and realise the love a father has for his children. I realised the sacrifices a father is ready to make for his children. I didn’t want my father executed anymore. I rushed but by then my orders were already carried out. I am unable to live in peace from then on. I couldn’t go back to the same palace. I moved the capital from Rajgriha to Champa to stay away from the memories. I am haunted by these memories.

I have never felt at peace ever since. I keep waging wars as it distracts me from those memories. “

Firstly, the story stuck with me for how sons never realise the sacrifices of their father till they become one. Then they expect their children to be grateful without ever showing the same to their father. The second one was how mistakes haunt people and the coping mechanisms one takes. I want to talk more about the former in this post.

Coming back to my present, as I started reflecting on the story. I started thinking of the sacrifices my father has made for us. He could have very comfortable life, if he didn’t sacrifice as much. As I just pondered over my childhood, I was filled with gratitude.

  1. As a computer science and mathematics graduate, he could have easily got a job in many parts of the world, which meant he won’t be able to take care of his parents. He sacrificed his career for them.
  2. To ensure, we have a place, he invested everything he can to buy a house. For the next 15 years, he didn’t buy anything for himself from clothes to shoes.
  3. He was a diabetic but he worked three and sometimes 4 jobs to ensure our family can afford everything. Today, we talk about working on weekends like some sort of sacrifice. From my memory, he worked a single day job, 2 separate evening jobs, a weekend job and used to run private tuitions. Being tired was a luxury he couldn’t afford. He didn’t have anyone to complain about his situation.
  4. He travelled a lot on a scooter, which in those poor roads had the same impact on one’s hand like drilling concrete. His schedule on an average day was
    • Wake up at 4 – 4:30
    • Help getting things ready for all of us
    • Drop me and my sister to school at 7:30
    • Go to work
    • Come back from work at 3:00, pick us up from school
    • Go to his next job
    • Come back at 8:00 pm
    • Have dinner and continue the next day
  5. Even after doing all this for the first 1.5 decades of my life, I never saw him do anything for himself.

I was comparing my situation. I drive air conditioned cars. I can afford to buy more than what I need. I have more than what I deserve. I can take off anytime I want. My father topped the state in HSC but couldn’t afford to get application form for engineering. He had to top the university every year, so that he can study the next. He lived in a home because my grandparents couldn’t afford food while he studied school. I was an average student, who was sent to UK to do an MBA. The luxuries in my life today are purely a function of the sacrificed made by my parents.

Well, if I want my daughter needs to be grateful, then what should I do? Actually, I want her to be grateful not to me but to her grandfather. As a first step, I decided to stop talking about myself but instead about the sacrifices her grand father. I want her to be grateful for the life we do today. That was my Ajatashatru – Bimbisara moment.

The 5 stories of life

~ Venki ~ Leave a comment

Life teaches us lessons. The lessons sometimes turn out to be more important for others than they are for the people who experience them. When great writers write about these events, the learnings transcend generations as stories.

We all hear stories, witness events that shape out thoughts. I am in a phase of my life where I reflect a lot on what has shaped me. I want to share the stories, learnings and my experience across a variety of aspects. I learnt rules of engagement across relationships from these stories.

  1. Ajatashatru, son of Bimbisara
  2. Kakkaipadiniyar, the mother epitome
  3. Koperunchōlan, the friend of Pisirānthaiyār
  4. Cheran Chenguttuvan, the brother of Ilango Adigal
  5. Rama, Shahjahan, Kovalan, the husbands not to be

To be needed, respected or liked: How we got the priorities wrong?

~ Venki ~ 2 Comments

We are what we aspire. People like us when they find us agreeable, enjoyable and satisfactory. People respect us when they feel deep admiration for our abilities, qualities or achievements. People need us if they require us because it is essential or every important. If I were to prioritise them, I would always want to be needed. To be needed, it requires one to be both talented and critical. However, in the corporate world today, not being liked hurts people the most, while being in a position of needed but not liked is considered the worst. I do agree that not being needed or liked can be the worst. I want to break this reflection of mine to a set of topics, starting with the importance of this idea.

Why is this discussion important?

The professional world has moved from infancy to insanity with no stops in between. For people like me who watched the horrors of professional exploitation of individuals from both the owners and unions, it is hard to make sense of the trigger. I remember in early 1990s and 2000s, there were two different kinds of industries. The first one was where, business owners would treat professionals poorly as long as possible. They will need your talent and the best way to retain your talent is by entrapment. The second type was one where unions held professionals to ransom. They ensure that one’s ability was never rewarded on par with their contribution. Any one trying to challenge this was a traitor.

If I look at the professional world now, individuals are forced to be acceptable and likeable. There is a high chance that people will be reprimanded for having opinions, saying uncomfortable truth or on set of arbitary guidelines set to constraint oneself. Unions are few and far these days. We have moved from being entrapped for exploitation to entrapped on social norms, professionalism and conformism. It has killed originality to such an extent that we look at people like Elon Musk as some form eccentric.

What is the impact?

People with power always find ways to retain it for their lineage. Historically, they have found ways to achieve this through religion, slavery, controlling knowledge, fear of law and if nothing works then violence. These rules eventually meant that there is a group that orders and there is a much larger group that executes. It also prevented the group that executes from ever switch sides to group that orders. In the modern corporate world, these rules have been eliminated. People are free to learn, legal system has evolved and threat of violence isn’t much of an option. How do we therefore ensure distribution? People have done it changing the dymanic of the game itself.

  1. A person who is knowledgeable and needed cannot be let go
  2. A person who is knowledgeable and needed will not care of medicrisy
  3. A person who is knowledgeable and needed will not worry about telling the truth

Businesses have started to distribute knowledge to ensure dispensability. The rules have been formed to force people to believe that being likeable is more important that being needed. I have not seen a HR rulebook or ethics code where it clearly says, one can tell uncomfortable truth or one cannot be fired if their truth hurt or being right is more important that being fair. However, I have read enough books which force me to never hurt sentiments, apologise even if I am right and above all be respectful for feelings. Entropy on of the most crucial phenomenon in Thermodynamics and equilibrium is rooted in disorder. Employees are forced and have subsequently been brainwashed to execute. This starts from an associate and goes all the way to the CEO. As a result of this dynamic, we have created a world where dispensability thrives.

My prediction

While I may not consider myself a socialist anymore, the concept of materialistic conception of history continue to hold true even after centuries. While the tools of oppression might have been different across societies, the existence of oppression has been constant till date. There are three classes globally, oppressor, oppressed and free. While the free may look enlightened in general, it is only a subset of people who are knowledgeable, have broken the shackles and have found no need to oppress anyone. I am still in the camp that free will is an illusion. People who want to break the shackles will always break it. They will prioritise wisdom over adulation and respect. They won’t toe the social lines or bother about the impact of it. They know that society needs them. The rest will keep oppressing and getting oppressed.

Breaking shackles

The key to breaking free from the chains of subjugation is to release oneself from the pleasure of adulation. When we fall for praise, we tend to enjoy being liked. When we enjoy being liked, it is hard to state truth. The second step in this is to focus on gaining knowledge through critical thinking. Finally, obedience and loyalty are good for masters and not for people who want to be independent. We are 1/2 a chromosome away from a chimpanzee. To expect more from humans is just as ridiculous like asking a chimpanzee why it can’t add two numbers. We have one life. It is paramount to live it free.

My tryst with anxiety – V: The remnants

~ Venki ~ Leave a comment

“You will suffer from PTSD for years to come,” my doctor said two years back.

PTSD is one of those phenomena which is commonly used, expressed in terms of symptoms but the truth is always concealed. Like the famous comedy routine of George Carlin, the pain is covered in the jargon. When you go through it doesn’t feel like the trauma is post. It feels present. It has been over two years, and I am out of medication but the remnants of the period still remain. I have laughed off all the physical impact but once in a while, I relive the pain. Otherwise back to my physical and mental strength, I want to share one (hopefully) final post on the experience.

For the lucky people who have never experienced this, I have an analogy to explain. Imagine you are forty years old and living in 2024. Your eyes see electric cars, tall buildings, smartphones, and heavy traffic. Your brain makes you believe, you are a child in the middle of an old town in 1985. There is a massive dissonance between what you need to experience to what you do. This isn’t post-trauma. This is a different form of trauma, one where the reality is distorted by your experience. Another and something more personal to me is what a victim feels when confronted with their abuser even after years. The abuser could be a frail shadow of the past and the victim is no more a child but a more powerful person. However, the shiver down the spine that sends a signal of helplessness that you felt during those wretched times can never be explained.

The purpose of this post isn’t to garner sympathy or bask in victimhood. Having gone through this twice in my life, first as a teenager and second as an adult, I can’t stop myself from comparing and coming up with coping mechanisms. The trigger for this post was an innocus catchup I had with one of my office mates from the past. we shared a few laughs and discussed about the happenings. I came home and felt a sense of drain, doom and gloom. The calendar said 2024 and my body was reacting like Dec 2022, immersed in anxiety.

No shame in abnormality

You feel weak, your heart races, you are nervous about the situation that rest of them feel normal. You don’t want to show the weakness to anyone else as you feel ashamed of the abnormal reaction. I have continuously reinforced myself that the physiological manifestations of my emotional pain doesn’t need external gratification. I feel what I feel and I am secure about it. If I feel ashamed to exhbit what I feel is a sign of weakness then I won’t. I would rather keep my sanity with that pretence.

Safety is key

These are times where you feel the need to share. As a child, it is hard to express because you lack words. As an adult, it is hard to express because you fear judgement and ridicule. You can’t share it with closed ones as they will continue to get hurt. You can’t share it with distant ones because you fear information leakage. A therapist becomes your best anonymous companion. If you can’t then find a friend who can be your support buddy. If nothing works, then imaginary discussions to yourself isn’t bad either. Talking to oneself is one of the safest ways to express.

Sleep

A good night’s sleep does wonders. The natural circadian rhythm for cortisol ensures that it is least at midnight. Hitting the bed early and getting a wonderful sleep helps regulate the anxiety caused by PTSD. Personally, it refreshes my brain to start all over again but this time more clearly.

Stay away

Advices like “Confront your abuser” or “Face your fears” are great for normal situations. When you are having PTSD, you don’t need to confront your abuser or face the trauma again. You need time to recover. If staying away is the best way to deal with the situation, then it is perfectly acceptable to stay away from the abuser or the environment that resulted in the trauma.

All of Fast Bowling in India is a footnote to JJ Bumrah

~ Venki ~ 2 Comments

Alfred North Whitehead once famously said, “All of western philosophy is a footnote to Plato.” I couldn’t borrow a better assertion to highlight the contribution of Jasprit Jasbirsingh Bumrah. Today marks what would have been the fifth day of the final test between England and India at Dharamshala. The series marked a few great moments, starting with 700 wickets to James Andreson, who doesn’t seem to age. Ravichandran Ashwin both reached 500 wickets and also completed 100 tests. Sarfraz Khan got a chance to play for India after knocking the door fibre by fibre over the last 3 years. Yashasvi Jaiswal has raised the bar so high that falling doesn’t look like an option anymore. Shubman Gill managed to show why he has been rated quite high. Why on earth am I talking about Jasprit Bumrah? I will use statistics and highlight the impact.

Test Matches

Test matches continue to be the grand stage for cricketers of substance. The nature of the game has moved from an era of negotiating defensively to asserting positively, whether it is batting, bowling or fielding. I want to start by how Jasprit Bumrah compares with other Indian Fast Bowlers.

Stats

Amongst fast bowlers who have taken over 50 test wickets, Bumrah has the best average, economy and strike rate.

PlayerSpanMatInnsWktsBBIAverageEconStrike Rate
JJ Bumrah2018-202436691596/2720.692.7445.1
B Kumar2013-20182137636/8226.092.9453.1
Mohammed Shami2013-2023641222296/5627.713.350.2
N Kapil Dev1978-19941312274349/8329.642.7863.9
Mohammed Siraj2020-20242750746/1529.683.3553.1
While, India always boasted of spinners who can win series in their homeland, the issue was the lack of penetrating fast bowlers to take 20 wickets abroad. Bumrah again tops the charts in terms of average, economy rate and strike rate.
PlayerSpanMatInnsWktsBBIAverageEconSR
JJ Bumrah2018-202428541266/2721.832.7248
IK Pathan2003-20081528737/5925.573.4544.4
Mohammed Siraj2020-20241732616/1528.653.352
Mohammed Shami2013-202343801536/5630.493.3854
Z Khan2000-201454952077/8731.473.455.4

Impact

The impact of a player is not just performing but contributing to the victory of the team. Again, not only does Bumrah have the best average, economy and strike rate amongst the fast bowlers in victories, he has the second best percentage of wickets taken for the winning cause amongst everyone.

PlayerSpanMatInnsWktsBBIAverageEconSRWin %Wicket %in wins
JJ Bumrah2018-20241733916/2715.192.733.647.22%57.23%
N Kapil Dev1979-19942448907/5618.32.4245.218.32%20.74%
J Srinath1993-20021734686/2120.32.548.725.37%28.81%
Mohammed Shami2013-202331621185/2820.343.0939.348.44%51.53%
IK Pathan2003-20081326677/5920.523.153944.83%67.00%
If these statistics aren’t amazing enough, then a quick comparison across eras on fast bowlers with over 150 wickets places Bumrah third in the list, surpassing Malcolm Marshall, Joel Garner, Curtly Ambrose and even Glenn McGrath.
PlayerSpanMatInnsWktsBBIAverageEconSR
SF Barnes (ENG)1901-191427501899/10316.432.3641.6
AK Davidson (AUS)1953-196344821867/9320.531.9762.2
JJ Bumrah (IND)2018-202436691596/2720.692.7445.1
MD Marshall (WI)1978-1991811513767/2220.942.6846.7
J Garner (WI)1977-1987581112596/5620.972.4750.8
CEL Ambrose (WI)1988-2000981794058/4520.992.354.5
FS Trueman (ENG)1952-1965671273078/3121.572.6149.4
GD McGrath (AUS)1993-20071242435638/2421.642.4951.9

ODIs

Against my natual inclination, I decided to also compare him with in One Day Internationals. This is because, the nature of the game has change more than tests. An economy rate of 4 was high in 1970s while it is insane in 2020.

Stats

While the economy rates may be varied, Bumrah still tops Indian fastbowever with over 100 wickets in terms of average. Mohammed Shami the unlucky second with a even better strike rate goes for one run per over more than Bumrah.

PlayerSpanMatInnsWktsBBIAverageEconSR
JJ Bumrah2016-202389881496/1923.554.5930.7
Mohammed Shami2013-20231011001957/5723.685.5525.5
N Kapil Dev1978-19942252212535/4327.453.7144.2
AB Agarkar1998-20071911882886/4227.855.0732.9
J Srinath1991-20032292273155/2328.084.4437.8

Impact

If we look at contribution of Bumrah in wins, the statistics are even more staggering. The economy rate comes down even further. What is even more impressive is that India has won 70% of the matches he has played and 80% of his wickets have come in a winning cause.

PlayerSpanMatInnsWktsBBIAverageEconSR
JJ Bumrah2016-202363631196/1918.694.2126.6
Mohammed Shami2013-202362621397/5718.745.1721.7
S Madan Lal1975-19873434504/2019.683.6632.2
Mohammed Siraj2019-20233333596/2120.494.8325.4
RMH Binny1980-19863333544/2920.74.1629.8
The other way I want to look at impact is how well Bumrah has inspired people to perfrom around him. Brett Lee or Jason Gillespie were never the same without Glenn McGrath. I want to compare three players who played before and with Jasprit Bumrah. The changes to the average and strike rate are quite drastic in matches with Jasprit Bumrah.

In matches before Jasprit Bumrah

PlayerSpanMatInnsWktsBBIBBMAverageEconSR
B Kumar2013-20182137636/828/9626.092.9453.1
Mohammed Shami2013-201839751426/569/11829.523.3852.3
I Sharma2007-2018901612677/7410/10834.283.1964.4
In matches with Jasprit Bumrah
PlayerSpanMatInnsWktsBBIBBMAverageEconSR
B Kumar2018-201824104/876/12020.33.0240.2
I Sharma2018-20211630585/438/7420.812.5648.6
Mohammed Shami2018-20222547916/568/10726.93.2250.1
Number don’t lie. So, it is easy to see how well Bumrah has done as compared to the greats of this era and that of the past. However, I do want to look into the intagible qualifiers of the bowlers. As someone who has watched from Kapil Dev to Javagal Srinath and then Zaheer Khan, it is hard for me not to compare the impact they all had on the game. With absolute respect to each of those players who performed well, Jasprit Bumrah is on a league of his own. He has broken traditions not just in terms of actions but also in terms of the expectations of a test bowler. The only bowler I can compare from my memory is Malcolm Marshall. Marshall came on the back of Holding, Garner and Roberts. He left behind Courtney Walsh and Curtly Ambrose. Many of the them took more wickets and they were all greats but Malcolm was the GOAT, who galvanised the unit. Jasprit Bumrah is that galvaniser for the Indian Cricket. There were philosophers before and after but Plato will forever be remembered as the icon of western philosophy. Similarly, Jasprit Bumrah will be icon for Indian Fast Bowling or rather Fast Bowling in India will be a footnote to Jasprit Bumrah, a true modern great.

“Stop being jealous”- The remark that got me thinking

~ Venki ~ Leave a comment

I am an assured, candid, egoist who bulldozes people to get his point through. The part assured was always key for me as that was the one that enabled me to be candid. That made me stand up and accept that if I walk into a room of 100 random people, I have a zero chance of being in the top 20% of smart people. What I lack in terms of IQ, I try to compensate with my work ethic. This acknowledgment also led me to want to keep learning more and admire people who are way smarter than me. The quote I was able to relate to the most was from Will Smith when he said in an interview, “If we get on a treadmill together, you’re going to get off first, Or I’m going to die.” Why am I saying this now? Recently, I had an exchange with a friend who I trust and respect who said, “Stop being jealous. Reflect on the last time you praised someone wholeheartedly.” While my response to her was one of petulance and denial, I wasn’t able to stop thinking about it. Why did that assertion bother me? What connotation did I have for the adjective jealous? What should I learn from this about myself? I felt the best tribute I could give my friend was to be candid about my reflections. Since, this post is a product of reflection, I will use the pronoun I more than any other.

The clear dichotomy between Jealousy and Envy

In a strict collochial usage, I tend to use the words envy and jealousy quite interchangeably, while always considering the meaning of the former. While, I would have been able to define them when questioned, I never used or understood the usage of those words in the context of what they meant. Jealousy is when one feels threatened that someone will take away something one has. It leads to anxiety, fear and sometime rage. Envy is a feeling of discontent or covetousness with regard to someone’s advantages, success or possessions. When Aristotle can explain the difference, I want to use it.

Jealousy is both reasonable and belongs to reasonable men, while envy is base and belongs to the base, for the one makes himself get good things by jealousy, while the other does not allow his neighbour to have them through envy.

Aristotle

My priced possessions include the handful of decent relationships I have built in my life and my ability to think. While the former has a shelf life that depends on how quickly I drive people away, the latter will fade away with age.

So, am I jealous? Of course, I am. I am jealous when my priced possessions get taken away. The way I deal with the loss, is by allowing my ego to take over. The ego which somehow convinces me that I am much more than that relationship or ability.

Am I envious of anyone? Of couse, I am. I envy people who are at the level of smartness that I can never reach. I also respect and admire people whom I envy. I can never be them.

Assured about my insecurity

I am extremely assured and secure in my world of insecurity. I live my life in a way that I have never felt secure in what I know or behaved. Like Alan Watts famously summarises in his philosophical magnum opus ‘The Wisdom of Insecurity’, I have to admit that I am insecure about everything I know and possess. Insecurity like jealousy, can have a negative connotation and when combined can even sound dangerous. The truth however like many other aspects is in the context. It is what is the insecurity about, our acceptance of the insecurity and how we deal with it.

The more we try to live in the world of words, the more we feel isolated and alone, the more all the joy and liveliness of things is exchanged for mere certainty and security. On the other hand, the more we are forced to admit that we actually live in the real world, the more we feel ignorant, uncertain, and insecure about everything.

The Wisdom of Insecurity by Alan Watts

Am I insecure about my work? Of course, I am. I know and acknowledge that I am surrounded by people who are not just smarter than me but also have achieved more than I could ever imagine. The only way I can understand a concept is by simplfying it to the ability my brain can process. So, when I explain it to others, it almost become natural for me to down play and make the work sound simple.

My two key learning

I started this post by mentioning about reflection and learning. I will be damned if I don’t share the two points I have learned in the process of this reflection. The only way to respect the person who trusts you to give the feedback is by reflecting and acting on those.

Downgrading my one work, down grades every one who has done the work

As I mentioned, my natural tendency while trying to explain to others any topic, even if it excites me a lot is by down playing it. For example, I love financial modelling. I get excited when I do it. However, I have many times said, “this is nothing, I just did it over a day.” While in my mind, it was an expression of discomfort and insecurity, it expresses two unintended messages.

  1. Demeans the work itself: There are people who do it and do it way better than I do. By articulating the way I do, I am in many ways demeaning their work.
  2. Projects condosension: There are people who are trying to understand it just as the way I did. By expressing the way I do, I make it sound like this is nothing special for me and if it is for you then somehow you are not at my level.

Need not reserve praise for people who do better than oneself

I have never hesitated to admire and praise people who are smarter. In this process, I also miss out acknowledging one’s who are in the process of learning like I am. My ability to quickly dismiss has made me who I am as a person. I have to work on adding an additional parameter to the dismissal criteria.

Neither of the two I have mentioned above are going to easy to change. To be honest, I don’t even know how to change. In typical Froydian analysis, these are my ids. I am also too egoistic to say, I cannot change.

Demystifying the US Presidential Elections 2024 – III

~ Venki ~ 1 Comment

Bracing for another four years of Trump

Let’s wind our memory back to 2016 and run it till 2020. A period that was marred by so much drama that we all felt like participants in the Real Housewives of White House. The new channels were going crazy, the were protests and counter protests each day and the White House staff were treated like a contestants of a badly run episode of Apprentice. The situation got out of control as families split over political support like never before in the history of the US. Clinical psychologists were kept busy as anxiety, depression and rage ripped through the heart of the country. Even as someone in Australia, I wasn’t immune to drama. So, here are my four key tips to myself to brace for potentially another four years of Trump presidency.

Democracy isn’t dying

Between Trump’s blatant support for dictators, attacks on democratic institutions, and media’s frenzy about him wanting absolute power, it is natural for people to feel anxious about the death of democracy. The truth however is that the institutions of the US are too powerful enough for Trump to achieve any of those. He successfully triggers people to react and gets amused in the process. One has to remember that between close to 500 million guns in the hands of people, powerful state governments and the congress, the POTUS has very low chance of declaring oneself as an all powerful dictator. If we look at countries that have a dictator or one where people have taken over as a dictator, they all the structural balance of the United States.

It isn’t bright as the right or gloomy as the left

The glory days of the past weren’t as glorious as the right wants us to believe. There were enough problems both in terms of abuse of power and unrest in every decade of the last 150 years. Let’s consider John Kennedy and Ronald Reagan, the two poster children of left and right respectively. Their tenure and policies would be far from acceptable by their bases today. Both EPA and Montreal Protocol were signed by republican presidents. On the other hand, it was Bill Clinton who got Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act replacing the famous Glass–Steagall legislation. Trump may bring down some acts and may replace them with others. The resultant changes will be no different from any other president of the past.

Get news from low percentile sources

It is critical to stay away from both mainstream news outlets and new age media (including social media). The frenzy created by both of them only adds to the mayhem. Whether it was Glenn Beck and Alex Jones on the right or Sam Adler and Cenk Uygur on the left, the key is to stay away from the extreme noise. I would like to get political news from the legislations being passed. I would get the national news from headlines that aren’t opinions. It is key not to get affected by the noise of the extremes.

Relationships go beyond politics

Family and friendships go way beyond political affiliation. To sever one’s relationship for mere support of another candidate in the democratic process is the worst possible reason to loose a relationship. As a person who has lost a lot of relationships in life mostly because of my intolerance, I have to admit the pain of severed friendships is one of the worst. I don’t think either Trump or Biden is worth that. We are fighting criminals but friends and family.

Most of these are easier said than done. We are surrounded by information more than we were in 2016. There are more twitter/X users now than ever before. More data flows through WhatsApp now than ever before. Whether it is correlation or causation, more people are having anti-depressants now than ever before.

Demystifying the US Presidential Elections 2024 – II

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What is this election about?

Almost every poll that has come out in the last few months has given Donald Trump a comfortable lead over Joe Biden. However, elections are never won on opinion polls. They are won on sentiments in swing states. There is no question of who will win California or Texas. The candidate who doesn’t disturb their base and gets enough people from swing states to come to vote ends up on the winning side. To prove this, I want to share my analysis of the last 3 elections that happened.

The 2012 Presidential Elections

The 2012 presidential election was one for continuity. Barrack Obama was riding on his handling of the GFC, Affordable Health Care program and he got people united with the killing of Osama Bin Laden. With the killing of the most wanted terrorist of the time fresh in the memories of people, it wasn’t hard for Obama to get the voters to prefer him over a rather dull and boring Mitt Romney.

The 2016 Presidential Elections

The 2016 presidential election was for polarisation. Hillary Clinton wanted to win it by pointing fingers at Donald Trump. Donald Trump on the other hand wanted to ride the way of populism. Hillary Clinton assumed victory and didn’t even bother motivating voters to vote. Between the choices of known vs unknown, people who preferred known came to vote more. The opinion polls consistently showed Hillary Clinton winning the elections. What we saw was a phenomenon where people lied about their preferences in public. It was a manifesation of Timur Kuran’s Private Truths and Public Lies in the political sphere. The result was the victory of Donald Trump.

The 2020 Presidential Elections

The 2020 presidential election was for normalisation. It wasn’t strange that the margin and the number of votes were the reverse of 2016 election. The preference of Donald Trump wasn’t taboo anymore. People who likes him came out in the open. On the other hand, Joe Biden was considered a safe choice, someone who is within the margin of normalcy. After adrenaline packed four years, where we were woken up by rants on Twitter, dismissal of secretaries, threats of violence against global leaders and calls to drink disinfectants to cure Covid-19, people wanted normalcy. A presidential term where we can have our heart rates in control, while we are all dealing with the rampant spread of a pandemic seemed to be the need of the hour. The deteriorating mental and physical abilities of Joe Biden didn’t deter people as much. He was able to get people to vote more in the swing states than Donald Trump.

The 2024 Presidential Elections

The 2024 presidential elections is one for compromise. Is having a president whose critical faculties are waning by the hour better than another four years of adrenaline rush? Can Donald Trump can scare enough people to not vote for Biden because of his falling ability over his erratic behaviour? Can Joe Biden remind people who the term from 2016-2020 and compare that to the relative sanity of the present? This is also the first election where people have a choice between two candidates who have been presidents(at least from my research). I don’t have a crystal ball but there is a case for and against both candidates. Here are my variables and predictions for the elections.

Key Criteria

  1. The debates in this elections is lot more important than the previous ones. If Biden is able to standup to a bombastic Trump, then it will show that he is capable of handling himself for another four years. On the contrary if he crumbles under pressure then it will be advantage to Trump
  2. A reversal of any kind to the economic downturn will definitely help Biden.

    My predictions

    1. The results in this election will be lot closer than the previous two in terms of number of seats. It is unlikely to see a 306-232 split.
    2. If the current situation and trend persists, then there is a higher chance of Donald Trump winning than Joe Biden. This is because voters have poor memories. We remember highs and lows in our personal life. The every day mayhem gets forgetten in four years. The anti-incumbency wave is more likely to go in favour of Trump.

    Demystifying the US Presidential Elections 2024 – I

    ~ Venki ~ Leave a comment

    Making sense of the US performance

    The US Presidential Election season is back. The 2024 Election is the seventh presidential election since I started following it in 2000. I have to admit that the fever and anxiety have only increased with every passing election. The decency with which Al Gore wished George W Bush after 537 votes decided a well-fought election and a 5-4 decision in the Supreme Court is not in the culture anymore. 12% of the population who can vote (Approximately 31 million) weren’t born when this incident happened. As far as the Congress goes, friendships and respect across the aisle have been replaced with partisanship and divisiveness. The left wing of the US Congress believes that the country is still deeply rooted in racism, sexism, inequalities and constriction of opportunities. The right wing of the US Congress considers that the past was a glorious time, the future is looking bleak, and there is a war on culture and religion. People like me, who, for all practical purposes, were socially and economically left of the 1980s and 90s, are left baffled by this. At the risk of sounding like a lesser intellectual version of Steven Pinker, I want to analyse if the situation is indeed alarming and how to deal with this anxiety.

    The two key outcomes I want to achieve out of this are

    1. Are Donald Trump and Joe Biden as good or bad as their supporters and detractors respectively make them to be?
    2. Is there a reason to be anxious about this election result? Will anything go wrong?

    In the first stage of this process, I want to look at the data from the time of Barrack Obama to Donald Trump and finally to Joe Biden. I want to break the data into the following categories.

    1. Economic
    2. Action on Illegal Migration
    3. Income and Wealth Distribution
    4. Climate Impact
    5. Military Spending and Wars

    Economic Factors

    For the purpose of this exercise, I analysed the overall GDP, GDP per capita, GDP growth rate and finally, the Debt to GDP ratio. Starting at 16 Trillion dollars in 2008, the US economy has grown at an average of 3.88% yearly, cumulating to over 38% by 2022. Barring the COVID-19 impact in 2020, it has been a rather steady growth. The same pattern is reflected in GDP Per capita. The only alarming figure in the economy is the Debt/GDP ratio. While the GDP has grown at 3.33%, the debt has grown at a higher rate, thanks mainly to the boost provided during the Covid-19 crisis. While for any other country, a Debt/GDP of over 100% is a concern, the US $ being the global reserve currency, is better positioned to deal with this.

    The most disturbing figure, though, is inflation. While it has been controlled for the better part of a decade after GFC, the war in Ukraine and the impact of the pandemic have put pressure on essential commodities, including fuel prices. If we combine this with the high debt, then we have another brewing crisis here.

    Action on illegal immigrants

    This was among the most sensitive issues between the Democratic and Republican parties. While Democrats were blamed for open borders, the Republicans were blamed for being insensitive and cruel. Well, as the saying goes, data never lies. The truth is Obama and Biden deported more people than Donald Trump ever managed. Trump, however, made more noise about this than Obama or Biden did.

    Income and Wealth Distribution

    One of the most popular opinions is that the Republicans are the party for the rich and Democrats are the party for the working class/unions akin to socialists. The reality is that the income distribution pattern in the US hasn’t changed in the last 16 years. Irrespective of which party is in power, they side with their donors to arrest wealth distribution of any kind. It is true that the top 1% have earned more in terms of percentage, but the pattern and percentages are no different from the past. I am not justifying the disparity here but merely pointing out that the situation hasn’t changed to warrant anxiety.

    However, the GINI index, which measures the dispersion of income, wealth and consumption inequality, presents a more positive figure. For the first time in years, the figure is below 30 now. It isn’t a reason to celebrate, though, as the contributors to this are most likely inflation and economic slowdown.

    The last figure to look at now is the unemployment percentage. Again, barring the impact of Covid in 2020, we have seen this figure decline consistently from 2011. It doesn’t matter if the president is a Republican or a Democrat.

    Climate Impact

    The last of the factors I want to look at is the impact on climate. As we look at per capita emissions from 2008, we see a steady decline even during the period of Donald Trump. Irrespective of whether the US is part of the Paris Agreement, the underlying change continues to happen, transportation is getting cleaner, and the emissions are going down.

    Military Spending and Wars

    Inflammatory speeches and partisan opinions aside, the US hasn’t engaged in a new war since Hillary Clinton left the Secretary of State office. Neither Trump nor Biden have armed children in Africa or bombed a new sovereign nation. Bombastic speeches aside, Trump did diffuse a dangerous situation with Assad in Syria. Biden’s speech aside, he hasn’t added fuel to the fire in the latest conflict in Gaza. All said and done, the spending on the Military hasn’t come down. Having reached its lowest point in 2016, the spending is on the ascendency. I am sure most military officers will take spending over war.

    As seen from the data (source: World Bank and OECD), the health of the United States is not dependent on the president at all. One could find more correlation between the war between Russia and Ukraine than the president or the party of the president. However, this definitely doesn’t mean that there aren’t problems or that the data is good. It is just normal. In the next part, I will focus on dealing with the probability of another Trump presidency. Whether we like him or loathe him, it is impossible to ignore the impact his term had on the mental health of all Americans.

    My tryst with anxiety – IV: The tribute

    ~ Venki ~ Leave a comment

    Continuing from My trust with anxiety – III: The redress

    The path to recovery from any illness cannot be one of solitude. I spent many days in a pensive mood, trying to unravel the happenings. A key aspect of the entire process was the support from my loved ones. It includes family and a close bunch of friends. I will not name anyone here, as people in that group know about it. I want to share the value of the support and my tribute to all of them.

    One striking change in my perception of my ability was the need for approval. I continuously felt the need for acceptance and acknowledgement akin to a child. While I can comfortably say that I am over that stage, I am incredibly grateful that I got the necessary support. For a person who thrived on hatred, I wanted appreciation and affection. It isn’t easy for people who were on the receiving end of this.

    I want to present a tribute to everyone who supported me.

    Arrogant was I, with a penchant for candour,
    breezing through life and dreaming of valour.
    Blessed was my state, rare if any in aught,
    the slip from grace was rapid and fraught,
    Senses went grave, meandering through the dark,
    Gripped by angst, my fall was quite stark,
    “What next?” I wondered, devoid of pleasure,
    Bleak felt my future, having lost the treasure.
    “What is left of life sans glee?” I murmured,
    Alas! I felt thy hand of kinship, totally undeserved,
    sharing my agony, bearing through kind and sober,
    ebbing and flowing with me, never asking a favour,
    what pleasure do I owe, for all thy grace,
    so profound was the love I felt in thy embrace,
    I beseech thee to ne’er keep me at bay,
    for I owe you more than words ever convey.

    A sincere thanks to my family, friends and doctors.