The last week saw the result of three national election results in Indonesia, Australia and India. In all three places the incumbent leaders fondly called Jokowi, ScoMo and NaMo were reelected respectively. We all know the result, what we need to do is understand it. I want to quote Albert Einstein, one of my heroes.
Any fool can know. The point is to understand.
Now I want to understand the result and see what I can learn about politics in a representative democracy. Albert Einstein also said “We now have to divide up our time like that, between politics and our equations. But to me, our equations are far more important, for politics are only a matter of present concern. A mathematical equation stands forever.”. Since I am not smart to present the behaviour of the whole universe in a mathematical equation, I find it easier to concentrate on politics.
Politics vs Governance
Politics is the act of gaining power. Governance is the act of enacting policies and controls using the power to reach the outcome. There are plenty of ways to get power. In a representative democracy, an election is a way of getting the power directly from the voters. Once in power, part of the governance is also to enact policies which control the scope of the politics. This cycle is intended to keep societies in balance.
In general, politics has a very negative connotation and quite justifiably so. Politics is not a game where both parties play the same game the same way with the same resources. It is inherently divisive and is a game where people are allowed to play rough under a very broad legal umbrella. Acts which would normally be considered uncivil are almost essential in the space of gaining power. It is a fight for dominance in the hierarchy and fights are inherently unhealthy and disturbing. In order to win an election, the parties have to perform this act well.
Steps to win elections
Understand how people vote
In any election, people vote based on the below criteria.
- Loyalty to an ideology/party/person
- One issue closest to me
- The charisma of the leader
- Policies and Manifesto
- Past performance
- Least objectionable
Primary Research/Listen
There is no substitute for primary research. The research should give the following answers.
- Percentage of people in each of the category given above
- Key issues in people’s mind
- What policies will shift people’s opinion towards you? What is the percentage swing?
- What policies will shift your loyal vote base away? What is the percentage swing?
Communicate the policy
Draft a policy set: The manifesto is a policy set which will help you get the maximum swing.
Create a slogan: The best way to communicate a summary of the policy is to create a slogan which will resonate with the voter base. It should play with the confirmation bias of the users. As Einstein said, “If you can’t express is simply, you don’t understand it well enough”.
Create a communication strategy: Build an on the ground strategy to communicate the policies to people.
Outsmart and outwork the opponents
Hillary Clinton didn’t visit some of the states which she was confident of winning. She lost them by a very few votes. There is no substitute for hard work. Always the party which is smarter and ready to put in the hard yards wins.
Steps to lost elections
Alienating voters
The centre-left parties have been extremely guilty of insulting its voters. No voter likes to be patronised. It is worse to insult their loved ones. Few very common examples are the ‘Basket of deplorables’ comment by Hillary Clinton, ‘Anti-LGBT’ comment by Bill Shorten and ‘Divider-in-Chief Hindu nationalist’ comment by Indian Liberal media. These didn’t help their cause.
Resting on laurels
As I mentioned above, there is no substitute for hard work. The common theme sometimes is the leader not even visiting the constituencies. One can remember Hillary Clinton not even visiting some of the rust belt states. Rahul Gandhi didn’t campaign in his constituency Amethi. If a politician is so overconfident that they are not going to even address the people directly then it is a matter of time before they lost. The voters don’t like a condescending leader.
Weak leader
As strong as a system may be, it is important to have a respectable leader. The elected leader represents the people. So, the voters need to see the person as a strong respectable person. A weak leader is not going to be helpful.
Not understanding the needs
The most extreme mistake is to misunderstand, malign, dismiss, patronise or worst of all not attempt to understand the needs of the voters. The voters needs have no obligation to be in line with your ideology. The key mistake made here is go with a slogan which is completely different from the needs of the people. The Trump’s build the wall didn’t work in the states where people didn’t have problem with loss of jobs, crime or immigration. In the same vein, Hillary Clinton’s slogan ‘Stronger together’ didn’t address the issues of the rust belt. ALP under Shorten failed to address the needs of the working class in Queensland. This led to their collapse in the Australian federal election 2019.
To conclude, politics in a representative democracy is a game of tricks to gain power. It requires a lot of ground work, respect for the opinions of the voters and willingness to do the hard work. This will sometimes mean the party has to be decisive without alienating the voters. Insulting groups s a good strategy if you are a comedian wanting to win claps but not if you are a politician wanting to win votes.
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