Tag: Politics

Demystifying the US Presidential Elections 2024 – III

~ Venki ~ 1 Comment

Bracing for another four years of Trump

Let’s wind our memory back to 2016 and run it till 2020. A period that was marred by so much drama that we all felt like participants in the Real Housewives of White House. The new channels were going crazy, the were protests and counter protests each day and the White House staff were treated like a contestants of a badly run episode of Apprentice. The situation got out of control as families split over political support like never before in the history of the US. Clinical psychologists were kept busy as anxiety, depression and rage ripped through the heart of the country. Even as someone in Australia, I wasn’t immune to drama. So, here are my four key tips to myself to brace for potentially another four years of Trump presidency.

Democracy isn’t dying

Between Trump’s blatant support for dictators, attacks on democratic institutions, and media’s frenzy about him wanting absolute power, it is natural for people to feel anxious about the death of democracy. The truth however is that the institutions of the US are too powerful enough for Trump to achieve any of those. He successfully triggers people to react and gets amused in the process. One has to remember that between close to 500 million guns in the hands of people, powerful state governments and the congress, the POTUS has very low chance of declaring oneself as an all powerful dictator. If we look at countries that have a dictator or one where people have taken over as a dictator, they all the structural balance of the United States.

It isn’t bright as the right or gloomy as the left

The glory days of the past weren’t as glorious as the right wants us to believe. There were enough problems both in terms of abuse of power and unrest in every decade of the last 150 years. Let’s consider John Kennedy and Ronald Reagan, the two poster children of left and right respectively. Their tenure and policies would be far from acceptable by their bases today. Both EPA and Montreal Protocol were signed by republican presidents. On the other hand, it was Bill Clinton who got Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act replacing the famous Glass–Steagall legislation. Trump may bring down some acts and may replace them with others. The resultant changes will be no different from any other president of the past.

Get news from low percentile sources

It is critical to stay away from both mainstream news outlets and new age media (including social media). The frenzy created by both of them only adds to the mayhem. Whether it was Glenn Beck and Alex Jones on the right or Sam Adler and Cenk Uygur on the left, the key is to stay away from the extreme noise. I would like to get political news from the legislations being passed. I would get the national news from headlines that aren’t opinions. It is key not to get affected by the noise of the extremes.

Relationships go beyond politics

Family and friendships go way beyond political affiliation. To sever one’s relationship for mere support of another candidate in the democratic process is the worst possible reason to loose a relationship. As a person who has lost a lot of relationships in life mostly because of my intolerance, I have to admit the pain of severed friendships is one of the worst. I don’t think either Trump or Biden is worth that. We are fighting criminals but friends and family.

Most of these are easier said than done. We are surrounded by information more than we were in 2016. There are more twitter/X users now than ever before. More data flows through WhatsApp now than ever before. Whether it is correlation or causation, more people are having anti-depressants now than ever before.

Demystifying the US Presidential Elections 2024 – II

~ Venki ~ Leave a comment

What is this election about?

Almost every poll that has come out in the last few months has given Donald Trump a comfortable lead over Joe Biden. However, elections are never won on opinion polls. They are won on sentiments in swing states. There is no question of who will win California or Texas. The candidate who doesn’t disturb their base and gets enough people from swing states to come to vote ends up on the winning side. To prove this, I want to share my analysis of the last 3 elections that happened.

The 2012 Presidential Elections

The 2012 presidential election was one for continuity. Barrack Obama was riding on his handling of the GFC, Affordable Health Care program and he got people united with the killing of Osama Bin Laden. With the killing of the most wanted terrorist of the time fresh in the memories of people, it wasn’t hard for Obama to get the voters to prefer him over a rather dull and boring Mitt Romney.

The 2016 Presidential Elections

The 2016 presidential election was for polarisation. Hillary Clinton wanted to win it by pointing fingers at Donald Trump. Donald Trump on the other hand wanted to ride the way of populism. Hillary Clinton assumed victory and didn’t even bother motivating voters to vote. Between the choices of known vs unknown, people who preferred known came to vote more. The opinion polls consistently showed Hillary Clinton winning the elections. What we saw was a phenomenon where people lied about their preferences in public. It was a manifesation of Timur Kuran’s Private Truths and Public Lies in the political sphere. The result was the victory of Donald Trump.

The 2020 Presidential Elections

The 2020 presidential election was for normalisation. It wasn’t strange that the margin and the number of votes were the reverse of 2016 election. The preference of Donald Trump wasn’t taboo anymore. People who likes him came out in the open. On the other hand, Joe Biden was considered a safe choice, someone who is within the margin of normalcy. After adrenaline packed four years, where we were woken up by rants on Twitter, dismissal of secretaries, threats of violence against global leaders and calls to drink disinfectants to cure Covid-19, people wanted normalcy. A presidential term where we can have our heart rates in control, while we are all dealing with the rampant spread of a pandemic seemed to be the need of the hour. The deteriorating mental and physical abilities of Joe Biden didn’t deter people as much. He was able to get people to vote more in the swing states than Donald Trump.

The 2024 Presidential Elections

The 2024 presidential elections is one for compromise. Is having a president whose critical faculties are waning by the hour better than another four years of adrenaline rush? Can Donald Trump can scare enough people to not vote for Biden because of his falling ability over his erratic behaviour? Can Joe Biden remind people who the term from 2016-2020 and compare that to the relative sanity of the present? This is also the first election where people have a choice between two candidates who have been presidents(at least from my research). I don’t have a crystal ball but there is a case for and against both candidates. Here are my variables and predictions for the elections.

Key Criteria

  1. The debates in this elections is lot more important than the previous ones. If Biden is able to standup to a bombastic Trump, then it will show that he is capable of handling himself for another four years. On the contrary if he crumbles under pressure then it will be advantage to Trump
  2. A reversal of any kind to the economic downturn will definitely help Biden.

    My predictions

    1. The results in this election will be lot closer than the previous two in terms of number of seats. It is unlikely to see a 306-232 split.
    2. If the current situation and trend persists, then there is a higher chance of Donald Trump winning than Joe Biden. This is because voters have poor memories. We remember highs and lows in our personal life. The every day mayhem gets forgetten in four years. The anti-incumbency wave is more likely to go in favour of Trump.

    Another gun crime – Killing in Kansas

    ~ Venki ~ Leave a comment

    Many of you would have come across this story of  Srinivas Kuchibhotla, an Indian engineer who was shot dead in Kansas, US. For people who haven’t here are some of the links to go through.

    LA Times
    CNN – Widow of the victim speaking
    Quartz
    Reuters

    Before I start, let me tell you that I have nothing but utmost sympathies for the family of the victim and tremendous respect for people who tried to prevent this incident. However, my view on the nature of the issue is slight different.

    Adam Purinton, the perpetrator is a 51 year old Navy veteran. I have deliberately ignored his race as I deem it unimportant. I have probably lost half of you now, but continue on if you want to understand the systemic issue underneath. Here are my 4 major reasons for this crime according to me.

    1. He is a Navy veteran, who has been indoctrinated to think in a way
    2. Think of his economic situation
    3. Support for ex-service people
    4. The seriously dumb gun laws

    Long back I worked with an army veteran from India. In a casual chat, I could realise his deep rooted hatred for people from Pakistan. He wasn’t able to think beyond his biases to feel the people from the other side of the border have equal needs and wants as him. That brought me to another realisation, it is not possible for him to wage a war with those people if he starts empathising with their situation. I can’t essentially shoot a person down if I start feeling for his family. To take someone’s life for an ideology needs one to be indoctrinated deeply in its favour. There cannot be a moral predicament in a situation of need. Imagine such a person with strong faith in certain ideologies getting hold of weapons. The situation is bound to get out of control soon. The accused in this instance, Adam is one such. He has been trained to attack people of a certain skin tone or religion or both. He was fighting wars against them. All of a sudden, he starts seeing them in his midst and he has weapons. How does that work?

    It is easy to attribute every violent behaviour by white people as racist. Racism in most instances is the facade or in some instances is the trigger. I do not believe that Adam has insulted every non-white he has met till date. He is probably facing the same economic turmoil as most dwindling US middle class. The bottom 60% of the society has been ignored for decades and the pent-up grievances are showing up as anger.  Adam has probably seen the US economy move from something that worked for him to something that will never work for him. He finds people whom he has classified as outsiders (as discussed above) living a decent life. How does he act?

    The United States of America has been fighting wars for decades now. I can’t remember a time when they were not in war, with a country. What happens to all these war veterans when they go back. It is economically impossible to wage a war continuously and provide the necessary support for the veterans. People who have fought a war, need lot of mental and economic support. If they are not provided, then they are left to act on their instincts, which is most instances is actually quite depressing. Again in this instance, we have a veteran, with a gun, not in the best spirits looking at a person whom he has been taught to kill.  What does he think?

    Why is the US congress unable to look at the need for gun control? What is the fascination in holding a gun? Kids shooting in schools, depressed men shooting women, terrorists shooting innocents, random shootings and list goes on. It is time for people to mature and look at the calendar to realise that we are in 2017 and not 1700s. There is no need for common people to have a weapon. If someone needs it, then they can loan it for a purpose e.g. I want to scare animals from my farm etc.

    Connecting the dots, you have got a ex-Navy person, who has been indoctrinated to kill brown people or a certain religion, in deep economic crisis, looking at people looking similar to people he killed doing well, has no support from the government and has access to guns. It is the gross failure on the part of the US government which has engaged in series of wars and hasn’t done enough for the veterans or have good gun control laws. Yes, the perpetrator should be brought to justice but so should the system which has failed Srinivas and countless other innocents.

    Again, it is sad that we have lost a life and it is worse for that family. As rational people, we need to think through the problem. I do agree that apart from my reasons, there have been lot of other instigators and reasons for this incident. However, unless these systemic risks are addressed, people will be addressing the symptom and not the issue.

    How to recognize Dictatorship?

    ~ Venki ~ Leave a comment
    The morning began with news on Syrian army capturing Aleppo.  The United Nations representatives from different countries started fighting over human rights violations, notoriously the ones from the US and Russia. The former cried foul while the latter claimed credit for an amazing and humane victory against terrorists. For semi-aware listeners who constitute the majority, it was an open and shut case one way or other. The reality is not in the middle but somewhere outside. The fight for and against democracy continues.
    Democracy is the best amongst all the bad options we have got. To me personally, a democratic government is one which recognises the views of all and ensures the civil rights of all citizens are protected equally. What does this translate to?
    1. Protection of human rights irrespective of sectarian and religious beliefs.
    2. Rejection of discrimination as a privilege
    3. Implement policies for collective growth
    4. Elected by people and governed by constitution
    The Governments even the democratically elected ones of the first world still don’t stick to it. What gets termed democratic, communist, autocratic, monarchic or dictatorial has become a very subjective term when it is actually not.
    A random sample of such non-democratic governments is below.
    1. Saudi Arabia is a rogue state governed by dictators. It has singularly been responsible for the spread of terrorism through its Wahabi Salafi ideologies. It is bombing Yemen as we speak with the support of NATO and there is no discussion on that as Syria or North America. It is a bane for moderate Islam.
    2. China’s fetish to its One China vision has been destroying civilisations. It is a totalitarian regime where dissent means death.
    3. The Cuban regime under Fidel Castro had been no different. It’s development has been marred by human rights violations in spite of the astonishing developments in medicine and education sectors.
    4. North Korea is an Orwellian society where the dead dictators are worshiped by the living dictator and his subjects.
    Each of these governments are looked differently. Saudi Arabia is looked as a western ally in spite of all its human rights violations. People talk about it but never ever call for any action against them. China is an international bully and countries want to be on their good books. The fact that protest is concerned as treason and such activists are subjected to strong sedition laws is of least importance to sycophants. Cuba and North Korea though are not a lot different but have huge sanctions imposed on them.
    There is an obvious cord that connects all these. The elite and privileged force us to believe that regimes are dictatorial only when they are not rich in natural resources and question their authority. That is why Saudi Arabia and China become acceptable while North Korea and Cuba are not. Every dictator has been hailed as a leader by countries like the US or UK. Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan praised Osama Bin Laden and Mujahideen as freedom fighters. Idi Ameen was able to fly to the UK and get a royal welcome. The same holds good for Gaddafi or Saddam Hussein.
    So how do I understand dictatorship or a dictatorial regime? To me, a dictatorial or authoritarian regime is one which satisfies one of the below conditions
    1. A government which commits human rights violations against its subjects including genocide
    2. A government which promotes Geneva conventions
    3. A government which suspends Habeas Corpus
    4. A government where dissent is not acceptable and can be punished with treason
    5. A government which is not run by constitution and an official elected by the people
    6. A government where the constitution cannot be amended
    7. A government where an unelected person has unilateral rights to dismiss an elected government
    Using these rules, here are examples where even democratically elected government acted authoritarian and dictatorial.
    1. The US and UK government selling intelligence and arms to the Saudi Arabia to kill civilians in Yemen
    2. The US government using force against water protectors in Standing Rock after taking sides with the Big Oil
    3. The Sri Lankan Government under Rajapaksa committing genocide on tamil population
    4. The suspension of Habeas Corpus during the unwarranted emergency declared in India
    5. Pakistan government taking sides with international terror organisations killing innocent civilians in Pakistan
    6. The unilateral government which suppresses dissent in Singapore
    7. Governments of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh which instigated killings of minorities in their own countries
    8. The NDAA (especially sections 1021 and 1022) and Patriot Act giving permission for mass surveillance and suspension on Habeas Corpus, providing dictatorial powers to the president of the US
    9. The Philippines government murdering drug offenders
    10. Governments like Malaysia where the monarch can dismiss the government
    It is paramount for progress of civilisation to ensure we keep identifying and thwarting any dictatorial streak irrespective of whether it is a democratically elected government or the one run by a ‘Supreme Leader’. The result of the intellects surrendering their critical faculties and not protesting against these primitive urges to control and oppress has never resulted in good results.